Joe’s Weather Blog: Where We’ve Been…(TUE-8/5)

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Good morning…summer has settled into the area for sure as highs are now nudging 90° on a semi-regular basis but at least there is no prolonged serious heat expected for awhile…just the typical August grind in the weather world.

Forecast:

Rest of today: As expected there are some storms NE of the KC area this morning. Like yesterday those will fade away and overall another hot and somewhat humid day is expected with highs around 90° and a heat index between 95-100°. We should see increasing amounts of sunshine and light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies with lows near 70°

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and hot with increasing chances of storms later in the day and overnight. Highs again should be near 92° with heat index #’s near 100°. SW winds of 15-25 MPH are likely.

Discussion:

As you know every so often I like to step back and see how we’re doing here in KC from an overall weather standpoint and today, as we’re on the backside of meteorological summer I thought it would be a good opportunity to catch up. Not only for the summer overall but also for the last year and then-some.

Let’s take a look and I’ve gone ahead and highlighted in blue some of the more interesting stats regarding our average temperatures especially with historical content. Click on the image below for a more readable experience…

ScreenHunter_02 Aug

So what do we have above? Interesting that for the past month, going back to 7/5 we are going through the 9th coldest period for temperatures. In the bigger picture we are the 5th coolest for the entire year (1/1 thru 8/4) and going back to 8/5/13 we are 7th coolest in ranking. The rankings by the way go back to the 1880s..so the period of record is substantial.

Heck IF you want to go back 2 years…back to 8/5/12…we are tied for the 9th coolest 2 year period…which is rather impressive.

Interesting to note that for the past 2 years…we’re still a solid 15″+ below average for precipitiation around these parts.

Nationwide for the year overall…it looks very much like the winter maps that I shared with you numerous times…

 

Lots of cold weather from the Plains through the Great Lakes region with the same heat persisting out to the west in the western US.

The country “overall” leans towards the dry side of things…and there are still many areas that are running below average for moisture…

 

and specifically for the Plains/Corn belt region…

 

You can see clearly how the Lakes region through SE KS and E OK is still languishing in terms of moisture in 2014.

With that said…let’s head down into the tropical Pacific where we have two hurricanes that will threaten Hawaii with winds and rain although both will weaken substantially and really it will be more of a wave and rain event with some gusty winds.

#1 on the hit parade is Iselle which was packing winds of over 120 MPH yesterday.

 

It’s the storm with the eye near 140W…the storm to the right of it is Julio.

Iselle will continue to move westwards and believe it or not the water temperatures actually cool down as you get closer to the Hawaiian chain…so the storm will weaken substantially but still may be a strong tropical storm (winds under 74 MPH) as it heads near or towards the Big Island.

Landfall is expected on the Big Island sometime THU evening or so. With all the mountainous terrain on the islands…the tropical air lifting over that terrain should create some pretty hefty rainfall amounts later in the week…

Oh and that other storm…Julio…yup heading for the same general area over the weekend.

 

So Hawaii is the place to be for rain it appears as the week unfolds.

It’s actually rather rare for a storm of hurricane strength to directly affect the Islands…I did some research for you this morning showing the known tracks of hurricanes (regardless of strength) crossing through the Island chain…click on the image below for a bigger view.

ScreenHunter_03 Aug. 05 08.29

The data goes back into the early 1950 or so.

Even storms of tropical storm strength typically weaken before getting to the Islands…so having a tropical storm come through the chain is a pretty unusual event…in a sense sort of counter-intuitive when you think of tropical locations

ScreenHunter_04 Aug. 05 08.34

On the Atlantic side…what was Hurricane Bertha really looked anemic yesterday and was downgraded today back to tropical storm status…and will mainly be an issue for shipping in the western Atlantic over the next several days.

 

As far as our weather goes, no changes are needed with still the highest and more widespread chances of rain coming later Wednesday into Thursday and there may be more rain out there over the weekend as well.

I’ve resisted the generic “stick in the rain everyday” forecast. You know how I loathe showing that on a 7 day outlook. In some rare cases over the course of the year it’s necessary, but not this time. I think today is dry and Friday is as well for the KC area. The higher rain chances are later WED into THU and also over the weekend, especially SAT again.

While wondering of the worse of the summer heat is already mostly done with the Plains…

Have a great day!

Joe

 

 

 

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