Joe’s Weather Blog: Significant Storm Chances (WED-8/6)

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Mid-Afternoon Update

Looking outside this morning…it really just looks like every other morning around these parts lately…skies are mostly sunny and it’s somewhat humid…overall a typical summer day shaping up for the region. Which is true for part of the day…but things are starting to stir to the west of the area and that means a change in the weather for us later this afternoon.

Forecast: (Updated @ 3:30)

This evening: Storms have rapidly developed in E KS and are at best slowly moving towards the ENE. See the radar below from the NWS for the current location of the rain. The threat for heavy rain is certainly there in localized areas. Timing of the storms arrival into the KC metro from west to east will be roughly from 5PM-9PM. Storms then may linger and redevelop overnight into tomorrow early AM before moving away. Again localized heavy rainfall (1-3″) is not out of the question. The severe weather risk looks mostly minimal although a rogue 50+ MPH wind gust is not out of the question before 9PM in the area.

Tonight: Storms become more widespread and slowly move through E KS and W MO. Obviously who gets the heaviest rain can’t be determined yet. Lows in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Storms/rain fade during the morning. we should be drier in the PM and I think the football game will be OK. Temperatures are tricky to pin down for tomorrow. I’ll keep the lower 80s that I’ve had in my forecast this week for now. Should there be faster clearing and more sunshine it may be about 5° warmer. Winds should switch towards the NW at 10-15 MPH during the morning hours.

Discussion:

If you watched any of my weathercasts last night you may have seen me point out a potential disturbance that was trying to form in the wake of thunderstorms in E/NE CO. This morning in looking a the satellite loop it does appear that something has formed out there and is slowly pushing eastwards as of this writing.

You can see it somewhat better on the water vapor loop in the western Plains area…near Goodland, KS

 

That disturbance will move into an increasingly unstable and juicy atmosphere for the remainder of the day and as we heat up this afternoon…we should see it help spark thunderstorms. How much coverage of the storms is obviously still an issue but it should generate decent coverage. Something else I noticed this morning when looking at the early RUC model…and in particular looking a the amount of precipitable water in the atmosphere (which tells me how much moisture there is from the surface upwards) and that is that there is a lot of available moisture for these storms to work with. Here is the forecast for about 8PM this evening.

rap_pwat_mslp_mcentus_14

That map above suggests upwards of about 2″ of precipitable water (PW) in the atmosphere and basically on top of us. That’s a LOT and tells me that assuming we get the storms to form, somebody is going to get a LOT of rainfall. The RUC data would also suggest to me that there is the potential of localized flooding as well in isolated areas of W MO and E KS should there be enough thunderstorms.

I guess there is a small chance of an isolated severe storm as well. I haven’t mentioned this aspect in the last few days because the winds through the atmosphere are pretty weak…but with such water heavy storms, I could see how some isolated areas could see a marginal wind gust to 60 MPH. I think the risk of some flooding rainfall though is higher than the wind risk in this situation. A lot of that will be determined by the storm movement (slower increases the flood risk).

Here is a look at some “future” radar forecasts…which should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt…since this particular product tends to be the less reliable by-product of the model data…but it does show potential and I think the model does somewhat have a clue about what may happen this evening and overnight.

 

 

Finally what the RUC seems to think are the rain totals through early tomorrow AM…

rap_total_precip_mcentus_18

 

So with that scenario laid out for you…here are some products to stay up to date for the rest of the day/night on what’s ahead and/or what’s moving through the region.

Here is the central Plains regional radar view…

and a look from a more local perspective from the NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO

I’ll try and get a blog update done later this afternoon sometime. Hopefully this will pan out in terms of the rainfall scenario laid out above so we get some widespread beneficial rainfall. If things don’t play out perfectly for you…another opportunity comes over the weekend in my opinion (if not even earlier than that) depending on where a boundary sets up as a remnant of the convection overnight tonight and tomorrow AM.

So a lot going on and odds continue to favor lots of rain over the next 10 days at times.

Joe

 

 

 

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