Joe’s Weather Blog: Do You Remember When? (THU-8/14)

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Another great and comfortable morning out there as temperatures bottomed out at 61° earlier today…and another great though somewhat milder day is ahead for the area…that plus some rain chances showing up over the weekend will be the highlight of today’s weather blog.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly sunny and pleasant for mid-August. Highs a bit warmer…near 85°. Winds turning towards the SE at 5-12 MPH during the afternoon. The weather will be great for the final game with the A’s at the “K” although bring a cap and/or some sunscreen if you’re going to be out in the sunshine.

Tonight: partly cloudy and not quite as cool with lows near 65°.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and warmer with highs 85-90°. Yes summer will be returning as the dewpoints creep up a few more degrees. Winds will be more from the south at 10-20+ MPH. Rain chances will be on the increase later tomorrow night into SAT AM.

Discussion:

We’ve enjoyed some great weather lately…and through Tuesday’s data here is something interesting, not only about this summer (66/1-8/11) but also for 2014 as a whole…

Several nuggets of information on there…also notice that today is a rather significant weather day in KC history…it’s the anniversary of our hottest day in recorded KC weather. 113° on this date in 1936!. The low that morning was 86°…giving us an average temperature of 100° for the day! It was a brutal summer in the dust bowl years with 90 days with highs at or above 90° and and a whooping 53 days with highs at or above 100°. The most through the year in KC weather history as well. In 1934 we had 46 days 100°+ and in 1950 we had 30 days…despite it all it was only tied with our 4th hottest year in KC weather history.

So with that said and a warming trend showing up (of significance) perhaps later next week heading this way let’s talk about rain chances.

All week long I’ve been tracking a disturbance coming out of Mexico. moving through AZ into UT and now moving through CO.

 

It’s produced flooding rainfall for parts of AZ and other places in the SW part of the county. If you look carefully at the above water vapor loop you can see it near the Denver area. The track of that feature will be the key to the weekend forecast. It appears that it will move into the northern Plains then drop SEwards towards NE MO. That means that areas across N MO have the better chances of seeing somewhat more significant rainfall than here…although we also should at least have some activity on radar around the KC area later tomorrow night into at least part of Saturday. The following map is the 500 mb forecast off the NAM model…it basically shows the weather features and areas of “spin” or vorticity in the atmosphere at around 18,000′ or so…look for the RED colors…those areas of spin correlate to rising air ahead of the area and sinking air behind.

 

Notice how there is a disturbance that goes up and over a “ridge” then drops down the MO River into N MO. For timing purposes, 00Z is 7PM, 6Z is 1AM, 12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM.

So there is certainly something to track heading into the weekend. After the disturbance goes by we should get into more “sinking” air and I wonder if Sunday may turn out mostly dry from KC northwards. Here is a look at the same model that shows the rainfall forecast.

 

Depending on the amount of clouds on Saturday…we should warm-up rather well to near 90° then behind the system (notice that on the data there is even a little surface low that moves through NE MO) we should see at least a little back off of the warmth for a day (Sunday). Probably back to 80-85° or so depending on the cloud cover situation on Sunday (there is potential for Sunday to be cooler than that however).

We will actually be in somewhat of a weak NW flow for most of the early (at least) part of next week which should create areas of rain and storms through the N Plains and the central Plains as well…however figuring out where any possible disturbance will go is not possible at this point in time…what the flow will do is help to keep the nasty heat at bay for a few more days next week…I could see us in some sort of prolonged 83-88° type regime till potentially some hotter weather knocks closer to us later in the week.

This pattern is a bit more favorable for some beneficial rain across areas north of KC through the middle of next week…they could certainly use it because while parts of the Plains have been wet…others are certainly getting dry.

Speaking of the rain, it’s been fascinating seeing some of the pockets of heavy and devastating rains that have fallen from Detroit through Baltimore then into Islip, NY and finally last night into southern ME.

Islip yesterday had over 13″ of rain which broke the NY state record for the most rain in a 24 hour period! That is an amazing record to break. From the NWS is NY…

“…RECORD NEW YORK STATE 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION BROKEN AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT…

A PRELIMINARY NEW YORK STATE 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS BROKEN AT ISLIP LONG ISLAND YESTERDAY. THE TOTAL 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AT ISLIP AT 11:00 PM AUGUST 13TH…THE END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD…WAS 13.57 INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6 INCHES AT TANNERSVILLE NY ON AUGUST 27-28 2011 DURING HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM IRENE.”

For those who might be interested…I believe Edgerton, MO holds that same record except they had over 18″ of rain on 7/20/65…and our friends in Holt, MO hold the WORLD record for the most rain in 42 minutes…12″(!) in 1947

That’s it for today…have a great Thursday and I’ll see you tonight at 5/6/9/10!

Go Royals!

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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