Joe’s Weather Blog: Heat Persists For Awhile (FRI-8/22)

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Good morning and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather blog…interesting morning for areas across N MO and NE KS as storms continue to rumble through areas north of KC…for the KC area…let’s see how much some of the cloud cover will influence the temperatures over the next 6 hours…clouds are blowing off from the storms and drifting from north to south.

Forecast:

Today through the weekend: Not a lot of change…basically fair skies with hot/humid conditions during the day and warm/muggy weather at night. Storm chances for the KC area are still rather small. See below for NWS radar from Pleasant Hill MO. Once again it appears N MO will have some more convection tomorrow AM.

Early next week (MON-WED): More of the same at this point with temperatures well into the 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

Discussion:

While the atmosphere is behaving (in the large sense) there are subtle things going on that while interesting may really not change our weather in the KC area all that much. One of the subtle features I’ll be watching this weekend is a weak disturbance that will get caught in the flow around an area of high pressure in the mid-upper part of the atmosphere. Here is the morning 500 mb map…basically a snapshot of what was happening up at around 18,000 feet.

The core of the high is roughly in E TX this morning and the air circulating around it is moving clockwise…the green shading represents higher moisture levels at that level. Notice the flow aloft is taking the moisture from Mexico up through NM into the Plains. Within that moisture belt are weak disturbances that could trigger convection.

From a satellite viewpoint you can get a better idea of the moisture that is out there and circulating around the southern Rockies and the Plains states…

 

Also notice the tropical system in the eastern Pacific with a HUGE center. That is tropical storm Lowell which as of this writing has winds of 60 MPH. That center clearing is roughly 120 miles across!

Anyway from all that moisture in the NM area…some sort of weak disturbance is going to move northwards then NNEwards…and while it should stay away from the KC area…it may generate additional convection tomorrow in the better left towards the west and NW of KC…we’re talking out through the western Plains from E CO through the Goodland, KS area and northwards into NE. Unfortunately unless some sort of outflow boundary from what’s happening as of this writing gets active…odds heavily favor KC staying dry with all these subtle features moving around the ridge.

 

 

If anything the ridge may get a bit stronger (sharper) this weekend which should intensify the heat somewhat in our area. As a result of all this, heat advisories are in effect for a vast section of the region…through at least tomorrow evening and it’s not out of the question that they are extended longer than that with a possible “upgrade” to an excessive heat warning in the cards since this will transition to a more prolonged event

 

 

So when will it significantly break? Odds favor sometime towards the middle or end of next week. Timing is still a question but perhaps later WED into THU we can get a break in the hotter weather and with it comes at least the potential of some rainfall…there is also a question how long the “cooler” weather will linger as well.

That’s it for now…have a great weekend and I’ll get another blog update done before 2PM Saturday

Joe

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    One interesting aspect to me is how similar this summer is to last summer in terms of how both years had relatively cool summers until the latter half of August, when it appears both summers will have had their longest stretches of continuous 90 degree heat. Based on current forecasts, I wonder if this August will actually end up above average for temperatures, and what will that do to our summer temperature ranking?