Joe’s Weather Blog: Sweating The Rain Chances (THU-8/28)

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Good morning and thanks for spending a few minutes reading my weather thoughts for today…the forecast still looks promising for at least some rain in the area…and the holiday weather outlook is OK but Monday could be an issue with rain possibilities.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Clouds should give way to increasing PM sunshine. Muggy. Dewpoints are in the 70s and with light winds again today stuffy conditions are expected. Rain chances are rather small as the rain to the west of the KC area this morning should fade as it approaches the state line. Highs will be in the 80s north and 90s south of KC.

Tonight: The evening should be OK but overnight tonight the 1st of several opportunities for rain will move into the area…odds favor after 12AM for the 1st chance. The rain overnight should not be widespread…chances overnight are about 30%

Tomorrow: Off and on thunderstorm chances but odds are this will not be a rainout type of day. In a way we need to get more sunshine to help create more instability to allow more rain to develop. Rainfall amounts will vary widely through the region but I’m somewhat hopeful and will stick with my 1/4″ to 1 1/2″ forecast for the area. Whatever forms will not be moving all that fast so that’s why there is potential for some locally higher totals. There will be a significant amount of moisture in the atmosphere tomorrow PM…so again assuming we get some decent storms to form and allowing for the slower movement of whatever does form…some will get dumped on good. To reiterate…amounts will vary widely. We’ll just have to see how things set up tomorrow.

Discussion:

Figuring out today’s final temperatures (highs) are tough enough…now trying to forecast rain that doesn’t exist yet for tomorrow and how it all plays into the weather into the KC weather picture is really tough.

Let’s deal with today and we’ll start with the satellite picture over the KC area

 

There are significant breaks in the clouds as of this writing just SW of KC…those breaks and the sunshine should make more and more of an appearance later this morning into this afternoon, and as soon as that happens temperatures should pop well through the 80s and for some into the 90s again. With the dewpoints in the 70s…overall another sultry afternoon is on the way.

Overnight some rain should develop off to the west of the region…that potential rain will move NEwards or even ENEwards and may move through at least parts of the area after 3AM. So when you get going tomorrow the potential of at least some rain in the area will be there.

Tomorrow potential will be decided by the instability we can realize. The wave coming in is very promising…the moisture levels in the atmosphere are primed…the winds aloft aren’t that fast (10,000′ or so) so that whatever forms will take it’s sweet time moving through the area…and yet the early model data today isn’t exactly overwhelming with heavy rain totals on a widespread basis in the area. The hi-res NAM model is bullish for some…and it shows the potential in terms of amounts which is what I’m keying on at this point. Where the heaviest axis set’s up precisely is impossible to say at this point.

hires_t_precip_kc_16

That’s a swath of 1-3″ rainfall along and immediately west of the state line. The lower res NAM model shows this forecast…

nam_60hr_precip_mc_21

 

Again potential is there but both models clearly show some NOT getting much of anything out of this which is concerning because except for NW and north-central MO which are pretty saturated…we all need a good drink of water.

The front that will move through is NOT very strong at all and will more or less whimper through the region and fall apart Sunday allowing south winds to kick back in by Sunday. As a result highs on SAT will again be somewhere in the 85-90° range…so the front really won’t do much for changing the temperatures around here…there may be a small humidity break on SAT…but it will be short-lived. We should be hotter and breezier on Sunday (90-95°).

A somewhat stronger front will move in on Monday…so the storm chances again go up later SUN evening and into Monday. Once again some locally heavy rainfall will be possible and there is actually a chance of some severe weather, especially near where the storms initially form to the west of KC.

How the rain totals play out around the KC area is impossible to say at this point. Again there is all sorts of potential over the next 5 days for significant rainfall. So that is a positive. We just have to see how things set-up each day that the opportunity presents itself.

That’s it for today…I’m doing the AM show tomorrow so I’m not sure if I’ll get a blog done in the AM or get something together in the PM.

Joe

 

 

 

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3 comments

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    May be too early to give up on tomorrow’s rain chance yet, but I sense the same pattern we’ve had most of the summer (except Aug. 6) where what looks like a good rain chance a few days out fades away as the time for the rain to occur approaches. The only saving grace is the odds of reaching 100 this summer (or warm season) are fading day by day.

  • Joe Lauria

    IF we can warm up enough tomorrow and get unstable enough…there should be some decent storms…that would be a tough one to swallow if it doesn’t pan out with the disturbance moving through. ^JL