Joe’s Weather Blog: Another Frustrating Storm (FRI-8/29)

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I had been hopeful that while we’d see some rain that at least for some of us it would be of the beneficial type and not a wasted storm system. It appears right now it’s turning into the latter and not the former. We’re not totally done with the rain potential however.

Forecast:

Rest of today: The late AM rain is moving away and clouds will give way to sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs today rebounding to near 85°. As we get warm again we may re-fire some storms in the region. Where these storms re-fire (if they even do) remains to be seen. The surface pattern is rather chaotic and there really isn’t a strong focus at this point. Odds at this point favor areas on the KS side with the storms moving to the NE. So IF we get additional storms they should wait till after 5 or 6PM at this point.

Tonight: IF storms re-fire they will wane this evening. Odds favor drying conditions after 9PM. Lows in the 60s

This weekend: Muggy tomorrow through Sunday. Highs well into the 80s SAT then 90s on SUN. A little more breezy on Sunday. Storms are possible again later Sunday evening into MON AM. Most of MON looks OK. Highs on MON in the 80s.

Discussion:

Decent upper level storm for late August…warmth…moist airmass..some instability all should’ve combined to give us either more rain this AM (amounts were mostly under 1/4″) or decent totals this afternoon. Now the storm itself is moving through E KS. You can actually see a center of circulation near Manhattan in the storm itself. That represents the core of the cooler air aloft. Unfortunately we’re under a blanket of clouds for the time being but that should clear out over the next few hours.

 

So we’re see temperatures start to rise again. The 1PM surface map already shows temperatures in the mid 80s to the west of here in the sunshine.

 

IF you look carefully at the above map and look at the wind indicators…you can sort of see a wind shift line near the station “MHK”. That’s Manhattan, KS and that’s the front. It may get to us but will be falling apart as it does so later tonight into tomorrow early AM. There will be some instability rebuilding this afternoon in the sunshine. IT may be enough to fire some new storms somewhere on the KS side. I’m just not sure where at this point. We’ll just have to watch radar this afternoon and see how things come or don’t come together.

Overall I’m somewhat disappointed in my forecasts via the blog for the last few days. The model data was somewhat hopeful yesterday and I think I was almost more hopeful than the data was for decent rainfall in the area. It seemed a lot of parameters were there…sadly this will be another under-producing storm for the area assuming nothing else of significance plays out this afternoon.

The next opportunity will come later Sunday evening into MON AM. An outbreak of storms should form into a line across north central KS and south NE. Then that line should march off towards the east and ESE and move through at least part of the area. The GFS then allows that area to fall apart on top of the I-70 corridor on Monday. Then the remnant line re-fires in the PM MON. The latest EURO is doing this as well. While certainly plausible, the models really have a tough time in accuracy when they are trying to  compute one area falling apart, leaving a boundary and then re-firing that boundary from 3 days away.

We should stay rather hot through next week it seems. we’re NOT done with the 90s in the area.

Let’s evaluate this situation more over the weekend. Today the 29th is a rather significant day in weather history. Here is why.

Have a great and safe holiday weekend. I’ll be dragging sprinklers around this afternoon.

Joe

 

 

 

 

 

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