Joe’s Weather Blog: Storm Chances And The Royals (SUN-8/31)

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Boy last night’s Royal’s game still is leaving a bad taste in my mouth…all those opportunities just wasted…we’ll try again tonight at 7:07 on ESPN2…good luck to the boys in Blue. IF you’re going to the sold out game, tailgating will be fine but hot…most, if not all of the game will be dry. Should the game be another 4 hour+ marathon like last night there would be a chance of some late game showers but odds are the rain should hold off till well after the game.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly sunny with a few clouds at times. No chance of rain this afternoon with highs between 90-95°.

Tonight: Mostly clear early this evening followed by increasing clouds later this evening. warm and muggy with evening temperatures in the 80s for the game then dropping into the 70s around 12AM. After 12AM storms will be lighting up in the region. The timing for the KC area for the arrival of storms is roughly 10PM-4AM at this point then the storms should move away after daybreak. Lows end up in the 60s and the potential for heavy rain is certainly there for many areas from KC northwards.

Tomorrow: Forecast will be decided by what happens overnight tonight and the potential of any boundary being left over and interacting with winds above the surface. There will also be a cold front moving into the area later tomorrow afternoon. Will we again become unstable? Will the atmosphere be worked over from the AM storms? How hot will we get tomorrow? again all this will be determined by the strength of the overnight complex. Should the storms not blast through the KC area and remain to the north, PM storms would be more likely.

Discussion:

The forecast is fraught with potential busts over the next 24 hours. What we can be confident about is that t/storms will break out to the west and NW of the KC region later this afternoon/evening and odds are good they will be severe there. As a matter of fact some tornadic activity is not out of the question and the best chances for this aspect of the storms in in E NE this evening.

What these storms do as they approach KC is the question of the afternoon. Will they allow an outflow boundary to push out ahead of the main area of heavy rainfall…rushing out and creating an early line or broken line of storms that could effect the last hour of the Royals game or the after game tailgaters? Will the storms remain across mostly areas north of KC and pound N MO and NE KS with unwelcome rainfall on top of saturated soil conditions?  Do the storms barrel through KC and push well south of the area towards daybreak and not allow the atmosphere to recover during the heating tomorrow? So many issues and so many possibilities…sort of like a bunch of runners on base…but will anyone knock a key hit and allow the runners to score easily.

OK no more baseball metaphors..

Tuesday looks dry and another chance of storms arrives on Wednesday as the hotter air comes back in for another 2 day stay before a somewhat stronger cold front moves into the area later this week.

I’ll leave with you the HRRR model showing the model thoughts for the next 15 hours…

 

The model is courtesy of WeatherBell.

It does show the potential of storms to be here as early as 10PM tonight…at least as of the latest run when I wrote this blog.

In the end, if you want to be perfectly safe…bring an umbrella with you into the game tonight and you don’t have to worry about whether or not the storms come in before 11PM or wait will 2AM to move through the KC area.

That’s it for now…I may get another update done before the game tonight then I have the AM shift tomorrow so I’ll be tracking the rain or leftover rain on the Morning show starting at 4:30 AM

Joe

 

 

 

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