Joe’s Weather Blog: Stuck In The Muck (THU-9/18)

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Not exactly a Chamber of Commerce morning out there with low clouds and/or fog starting off the day indicative of a ton of moisture in the lowest level of the atmosphere. Once again we’ll struggle to clear up this afternoon from I-70 southwards especially. Temperatures for KC will again be below average for highs.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Clouds/fog take there sweet time in clearing and we may not get sunshine till the middle of the afternoon. Yesterday we never really cleared out till the evening and we still made 74° at KCI…I thought last night the clearing might happen a bit quicker and pushed highs up to 77°. Looking at the data this AM…that might be too generous. N MO has a better chance of seeing that happen. From KC south it may again struggle so let’s just go for highs in the 70-75° range and hope for the best.

Tonight: I’m going to monitor a chance of some shower and thunderstorm activity. At this point I think we’re dry however last night there were some heavy rain producing storms just to the SW of KC…I need to see if that set-up is closer to us overnight. We should have more of a breeze tonight…so we’ll see more low clouds (less fog) and temperatures near 60° or so.

Tomorrow: We’ll start shaking things up a bit as warmer and breezy conditions take hold. Did you know that Wichita yesterday hit 98°? That hotter air is not that far away and will creep into the area tomorrow and then be with us on SAT. Highs on FRI though should be in the 80-85° range depending on the amount of sunshine we get.

Discussion:

I thought yesterday the models were too cool this morning in forecasting lows into the upper 50s…they were correct. Today they’re in the 70-75° ballpark and they may be correct again as we continue to fight the low clouds/fog through the region.

At 8AM here is the surface map for you…see all the purple dots…that represents a cloud base lower than 500′ above the ground and/or visibility less than 1 mile…in other words very low clouds or in many cases fog. There is lots of purple out there through the region. The horizontal lines between the temperatures in RED and the dewpoints in GREEN indicate how dense the fog is…more bars…thicker fog. The small purple # next to the bars show the visibility at the station in question. So for example at MCI (KCI) the visibility is 1/2 mile in dense fog.

From above this is what it looks like…

 

The more textured clouds this morning in E KS represents the lingering overnight convection…there were some beefy rain totals in excess of 4″ per doppler radar from Topeka east of Emporia. Waverly, KS reported 3.8″ of rain.

So today may be a struggle for us again to warm-up.

Tomorrow and Saturday should be warmer days with highs into the mid 80s on SAT ahead of a cold front.

That front should move into the area (weakly) sometime later Saturday into SUN AM. With it comes the rain chances SAT evening/night.

About Odile’s remnants…unfortunately for those who want more heavy rain…it may not work out…as the moisture remnants that do make it into the Plains get shunted to the S of the KC area…that means now we’re more or less counting on the front to be the bigger rain producer. The atmosphere should be pretty thick overall with moisture however on SAT as the front get’s closer but with that front being rather weak overall and the push not being the best…now we’re going to fight the thunderstorm coverage situation. Because while there may be decent rains in some areas, how widespread the coverage is now more of a question mark than before. Add into the equation that the storms should be moving along and as a result the rain coverage may be less than 1st thought. I can still see some areas getting over 1″ of rainfall just on the front situation…but how much coverage of those 1″ areas we see is the issue.

That’s it for today…I’ll see you again tonight at 5/6/9/10

Have a great afternoon

Joe

 

 

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Tough forecast today. Who knew the remnants of this stubborn low cloud deck would remain centered on KC all day long? Not complaining, the coolness is kinda nice. Headed to the Colorado mountains tomorrow for a few days of viewing the changing aspen trees, listening to bull elk bugle, and attending some fall festival activities in Estes Park.