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Joe’s Weather Blog: Are Those BIG Changes Certain? (FRI-9/26)

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Good morning…you may be hearing about the potential for some significant changes and trends to MUCH colder weather in about 6-7+ days or so…in my opinion this is NOT a certainty…there are major model flip flops occurring which tells me to “proceed with caution”…at least for a few more days. More on that shortly.

Forecast:

This morning: A few scattered showers and t/showers have developed near daybreak. They may hang around for a few hours but overall skies will be partly cloudy this morning. During the afternoon we should see more sunshine at times…highs should again be near 80°. Whatever rain falls will be brief and very isolated.

This weekend: Overall looks good with a mix of sun/clouds and highs in the 80-85° range…somewhat above average for late September as a matter of fact. Winds will be S/SE at 10-20 MPH or so.

Discussion:

There is still a persistent slight rotation going on in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere this morning…and that is helping to set off this isolated shower activity that is starting our day today. It should not last for long though…here is a water vapor loop..by the way notice all the moisture in the deep south I think(!?!) that is still some of the remnants of the moisture connected with Odile, especially in TX. Maybe later today I can go check on that…

 

Not a lot to write about concerning our weather as well for awhile…so let’s move on to the extended range forecast which to me at least is VERY low confidence.

The model data has been waffling around a LOT over the last few days…but the trend was for some MUCH colder air heading this way for at least 1-2 days in about a week or so…

Then this morning I look at the longer-range models which frankly will have a difficult time for the next few weeks in more active patterns, trying to figure out what’s going to happen. It ALWAYS happens in late SEPT and OCT as the models try to figure out the changing seasons…

As the seasons change and as things get colder and colder across the northern reaches of the hemisphere the jetstream starts to increase in intensity. The models just have a tough time dealing with this extra flow through the atmosphere and what may or may not happen over the course of 5-10-15 days down the road.

The GFS model which forecasts 4 x’s/day out to 16 days turns even more laughable. One model run it’s warm then hot then cold then frigid! The typically more reliable EURO model is also ALL over the place. Should as I mentioned…proceed with caution and don’t promise anything at this point.

Let me show you what I mean…take a look at the EURO model forecasts over the last few days…with the exception of the most recent run…this represents the forecast for 7AM next FRI…the following slideshow format graphics show the temperatures up at about 5000′ and their comparison to average. So the blues are cooler than average at that level…while the reds are warmer than average…

 

Usually when the models flip and flop around like a fish so much…you can take some solace in looking a the ensemble runs of the same model to perhaps give you more or less confidence. With the model above their is a definite trend of seeing less and less cool/cold air moving our way of major significance.

The EURO ensemble run this morning is cooler than the operational run shown above for next Friday.

The GFS model is still pretty cold for later next week…the following graphic is different than the above graphics…this would be for 1PM NEXT SAT…the 4th and is from the overnight run of the GFS

 

Now look at what the same model had from yesterday’s morning run…

Granted the above map is for 7AM SAT and not 1PM SAT…but let’s just say there are HUGE differences in the forecast for temperatures at that level.

I’ve tried to trace the cause of the model consternation and I believe it’s because of a piece of energy all the way in the Mongolia area that is forecast to be in AK next Monday evening…then it’s forecast to to move in the NW Canada and then down towards the Plains…while merging with something else…well you get the idea…a LOT is happening in that model to give me a lot of confidence in what happens here in about a week.

Could it get cold…sure…but it would probably be a 1 to 1 1/2 day thing…could we see just a seasonable cool front…yup. Could the front be real weak…yup. Could there barely even be a front in the 1st place? maybe.

If it were me though, for the next couple of days…I’m playing it more straight and not over promising significant changes to the weather here.

See you at noon.

Joe

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12 comments

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    It’s crazy how much rain has fallen in the Desert Southwest, including parts of West Texas, in September because of abundant moisture from EastPac tropical cyclones Norbert and Odile. Lubbock has had almost 7″ of rain and El Paso has had over 4″ officially, with higher amounts in other areas nearby. Meanwhile, Dallas-Fort Worth has only received 0.06″ of rain officially in September, as of yesterday. Lake Palo Pinto, the primary water supply for my small Texas home town of Mineral Wells, is at 13.2% of capacity and still dropping. The water level is almost 4 feet lower than the previous all time record low. They have secondary supplies they can tap in a situation like this, and they must surely be doing so by now, though those sources are only around 50% of normal capacity. One of those alternate sources is a big lake, Possum Kingdom, but its water is high in salt content and thus its water must be blended with fresher sources to meet state standards for sodium and chloride content in drinking water.

  • Laura

    I hadn’t heard of anything of any significance quite yet. Weather.com is calling for mid-60’s next weekend and I’m in the Maryville area, and NOAA’s website doesn’t go out that far but stays in the 70’s. That’s not cold to me, that’s just “October.” I hope it doesn’t get frigid this early, I’m not a winter fan. I think *any* 10-16 day forecast is pretty unreliable from my experience. For example, I photographed a wedding in Olathe Sept 6th. The first 10 day forecast I could get my hands on called for 95 and humid. By the time the wedding rolled around it was very pleasant, dry 75 degrees and sunshine. A lot can change in even a couple days.

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