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Joe’s Weather Blog: Perfect Weather Then Changes (SAT-9/27)

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Good afternoon and thanks for taking a few minutes on this near perfect early fall day in the KC area. Yesterday I had a thought that a lot of folks were stuck behind their cubicles and not able to get out and enjoy what turned into a perfect Friday. Well the good news is that if you we’re cooped up yesterday the next several days will follow suit and be ideal.

Forecast:

Today>Monday: Basically we’re stuck in a good weather rut with highs 80-85° and lows near 60°.

Discussion:

Not a lot to talk about weather wise for the next few days…it is what it is…and it’s great! Lot’s of outdoor events this weekend…including the American Royal parade through the streets of KC.

Yup that’s Michelle and I representing the FOX 4 Weather team today. Mike was MC of the parade…and folks were excited about the parade, the great weather and the Royals…so I had to represent this morning on the air. There’s a Royals tie underneath the shirt. It stays with me on the air for the rest of this Royals season and what hopefully lies ahead over the next month or so!

The satellite picture at lunch today is a thing of beauty across the Plains…

 

There were actually some t/storms along the IA border this morning and some activity earlier up towards the I-80 corridor near Des Moines.

The great weather continues through Tuesday afternoon/evening…from there though we’ll start to see some changes with rainier trends for a couple of days and cooler to potentially colder weather for later in the week.

I wanted to give it about another 1-2 days to allow things to come into a bit more focus…regarding these changes that were on the way. I blogged about my “proceed with caution” thoughts yesterday and while things will certainly change, and I’m still cautious about what lies ahead and the various mingling that has to happen for some decently chilly weather to move into the area…the prospects are increasing that if nothing else a strong cold front will be moving through later in the week.

So let’s start this by talking about perspective…with early October arriving our average high temperature is somewhere in the 70-75° range. Lows average around 50°. To me at least…if you can get a cold front deliver temperatures 10°-15° or so below average…that to me is a decent cold front. In other words if the high one day is 80° and the next day it’s 65°…well yes it’s chillier but for early October that is really NOT a surprise. Now you get that same 80-85° day and it drops to 50-55° for highs the following day…now we’re talking.

So the changes that I’m expecting will probably come in a couple of waves…the GFS has a cold front entering the Plains later on Monday then struggling to move eastwards. As a matter of fact even by WED AM the front is still to the west of the KC area…take a look at the GFS forecast at the surface for 7AM WED…granted this is 5 days away…and things will change.

Untitled

At the same time there is colder air (relative to average) forming in NW Canada especially…here are the 850 mb temps showing the anomalies…which I feel helps to serve as a better way of seeing the more significant changes (relative to average early October values).

gfs_t850_sig_noram_17

 

Notice that blue/green area in NW Canada and far SE AK…now let’s take this out another 24 hours…7AM Thursday…again look for the blue areas especially to see the colder than average airmass expanding into W Canada…

gfs_t850_sig_noram_21

Now 24 hours later…7AM Friday…

gfs_t850_sig_noram_25

 

So you can see that we’ll certainly see chillier weather move in later in the work week.

Then there is the rain issue with all of this…and there is better than decent chances of seeing some decent rainfall in the region beginning sometime WED and continuing into THU.

There should be some thunderstorms across the Plains on Tuesday but with the upper flow set up the way it is…odds favor those storms to move more NNE than E…so the activity should stay west of KC Tuesday evening (something to watch though for later TUE night).

Then WED into THU we should be into the rain at some point…and there is potential for some decent+ rains in the region as well depending on how things play out. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has this thought…

hpc_total_precip_mw_28

 

So I think at this point and with the realization that there could be timing changes…that the rain arrives sometime on WED and the chance lingers into THU. There should be 2 shots of cooler air…1 on THU and the other on FRI. It should be noted that becasue of the rain that should be in the area on WED…WED will be cooler compared to Tuesday. The 2nd shot will deliver the quick hitting shot of colder weather but since things move typically rather quickly in the Fall…the effects of the 2nd batch of chilly air will in essence keep temperatures near 60° on FRI and SAT…lows should drop to 40-45° on FRI/SAT AM

Finally a lot of this (how chilly it ends up being) is somewhat going to be determined by what happens with some wind energy that is going to be moving into the northern reaches of the Bering Sea west of AK so there are going to be changes in the timing of things and potentially in the actual strength of the colder air moving through the Plains later the week.

At this point at least…it seems to me to be a typically strong early October cold front and nothing to extreme.

Regardless have a great weekend…congrats to the KC Royals!

Joe

 

 

 

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