Joe’s Weather Blog: Royals Weather Issues + Flooding Rain? (WED-10/8)

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Good afternoon…after a decent and bright start this morning with a nice lunar eclipse thrown in for good measure…clouds have invaded the region especially from KC northwards…farther south there is more sunshine and temperatures and a few degrees warmer…

Forecast:

Tonight: Dry this evening but some isolated activity is possible from 8PM-11PM or so before the storms should become more numerous with heavy rainfall. There is a chance of some hail with the storms as well later tonight into tomorrow AM. Temperatures may drop into the upper 50s with rain falling overnight in spots.

Tomorrow: I don’t think it rains all day, perhaps the better chances are in the AM. Temperatures will struggle with highs in the 60-65° or so with a warm front well to the south of KC.

Tomorrow night into Friday: Another wave(s) of rain with embedded thunder is likely. This may turn into the heaviest rainfall time-frame and by the time things wind down sometime later FRI…rainfall amounts may exceed 2-4″ in spots.

Discussion:

As I mentioned at the top of the blog…there was a neat lunar eclipse this morning out there before daybreak in KC. Laura Davenport, one of our FB’ers who lives in Maryville, MO shot these pictures…of the moon from 4:15-6AM or so

 

IF your wondering about the reddish hue that the moon took on…it happens during many lunar eclipses and it’s the result of the sun’s light passing through the earth’s atmosphere and the rays of light being filtered and also “refracted” (bent). Here is a nice explainer on it.

Keep in mind that a lunar eclipse occurs when the earth passes between the sun and the moon…here is a graphic from earthsky.org

 

So a neat astronomical start to the day!

Weather-wise things are changing as well. At 1PM a warm front was establishing itself to the south of the KC area…

 

sfc

That warm front will struggle to move too far northwards overnight and tomorrow due to the increase in convection expected. Overnight tonight winds just above the surface are going to increase as the image below shows…

Those winds at around 5,000′ or so will overrun the warm front to the south of the area creating lift. This lift then turns into storms. Exactly where the storms set up overnight remains to be seen…there are indications that the range would be from the KC area northwards. The storms may be able to generate at least some hail and also create locally heavy rainfall.

How all these interactions occur tomorrow remains to be seen and this will play a role in the weather tomorrow and how much rain we’re fighting during the day. We’ll be fighting the warm front to the south and the winds above the surface overrunning the front…so rain may never be too far away during the day…

Then we wait on the moisture from the desert SW to move our way…this moisture is associated with the remains of Simon which at one point was a hurricane off Baja CA…now the moisture is moving through the SW part of the country and giving them rainfall.

 

What’s left of that wave of moisture will overspread our area later tomorrow into FRI…and that will really soup up the atmosphere that is already going to be soupy from tonight’s developments…so any lift at all compliments of of the flow aloft will set off broad areas of locally heavy rainfall.

There is the potential for some areas to see well over 2-4″+ of rainfall in this set-up and it’s certainly possible that the KC area will be in this range through Friday evening (at least). The latest EURO model is even slower with the rain departing the area and keeping it in the region through SAT AM.

Regardless how this all plays out the nice weather days of the past 48 hours or so are going to be replaced by some chilly weather for a few days. Highs tomorrow will struggle and it’s possible on FRI afternoon that we’re only in 40s. This will set the stage for a chilly weekend. We may have some frosty weather in the area on Sunday so a heads up for you gardener’s out there..

Highs on SAT will again be in the 50s while we should be a few degrees warmer on Sunday ahead of the next rain maker on Monday (perhaps as early as Sunday night) leading to another rather chilly day on Monday.

I’m hopeful that the rain on Monday will be over with by the game Monday evening (it will be chilly regardless). We should be fine in KC on TUE (cool) and WED (milder).

Also of note is the likelihood of rain in Baltimore on FRI into SAT. The games are FRI evening and SAT afternoon. There will certainly be the chance of at least some rain effecting the FRI game…how heavy remains to be seen. There also is a chance of lingering showers into SAT afternoon but odds favor drier conditions on SAT at this point.

Again as far as the KC area goes the day we need to watch for weather issues effecting baseball is Monday. Odds favor a cool Tuesday (60s) then better weather on WED (near 70°) of next week.

Take a look at the wettest October’s in KC weather history going back to the 1880s…

Capture

In case you’re interested…here are the overall wettest month’s in KC weather history…so far this month (only 8 days old)…we’ve had over 4″ of rain in KC at KCI.

Capture

Finally this afternoon a look at one of the stronger typhoons that you’ll see…perhaps not to Haiyan’s strength…but still very impressive…

 

The above storm is Vongfong which is considered a “super typhoon” packing winds of over 165 MPH (in gusts) as of this writing…and a very impressive close-up image…

OK that’s it for today…no doubt I’ll have a lot to blog about over the next couple of days with our rain situation…odds also favor some sort of Flash Flood Watch being issued for part of the region as well later today or tomorrow.

Joe

 

 

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