Joe’s Weather Blog: 2 Days Before The Arctic Chill (SAT-11/8)

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Good afternoon…sunny but chilly across the area today as temperatures as of this writing are in the lower 50s. I expect a pretty quick drop-off tonight before temperatures start to level off. Sunday and Monday will be milder and breezy…then not so much.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and cold with lows dropping rather quickly into the 30s and then starting to level out. The winds will lighten…then switch towards the SW and that should slow down the temperature drop. Should be near 35° by daybreak…maybe a few degrees warmer.

Tomorrow: Mixed clouds and sunshine, breezy and milder with highs 60-65°. SW winds at 10-20 MPH…overall very nice to finish the weekend.

Monday: This will be the last decent day for quite some time (perhaps into Thanksgiving week) in terms of being comfortable to be outside. Highs should be well into the 60s. The one thing that could slow that rise somewhat is cirrus clouds which should filter some of the sunshine. IF we can get rid of them fast enough there is minor upside potential.

Monday evening: The front comes through near or just after nightfall. Temperatures tumble and the winds switch towards the N/NW at 15-25+ MPH. So it begins.

Discussion:

Let’s start of this blog with a little weather eye candy….

 

There it is…one of the strongest storms in Bering Sea recorded history. Now granted the record keeping is somewhat spotty out there few ship/buoy reports) and there really aren’t too many weather stations that can help us out in determining the lowest pressure the storm actually has…we’ve estimated that this storm is one of the most powerful that’s ever been observed in that part of the world. This part of the world is not immune from these incredible systems and some of the strongest in the past have been from systems that have made the transition from tropical to “post-tropical”.

The storm bottomed out at 924 mbs…this equates to 27.28″. The latest report now shows very minor pressure rises…which will continue as the storm weakens somewhat…to a current (SAT PM) pressure of 928 mbs or 27.40″.

 

This storm went through something that we refer to as “bombogenesis” where the storm meets a certain criteria in intensification within a 24 hour time frame.

By the way…a few days after this storm did what it did back in 1989…there was a pretty good shot of cold air into the upper Midwest and especially the Lakes region. We were on the southern fringe and didn’t get the full shot.

It doesn’t happen all the time…but it does sometimes…and it’s why I’ve been writing about this phenomena for about a week now…

There really isn’t anything more to say regarding the upcoming cold shot that will last for quite some time…at least 7+ days, if not well into the week of the 18th…

Now onto today’s issue. The latest EURO came out and it’s somewhat unbelievable but yet somewhat possible. The “wave” pattern in the atmosphere gets so amplified that the pattern gets blocked up…so that the weather essentially locks into place. When you’re in a warm pattern that’s good during this time of the year…but when you’re in a cold pattern like we will be that’s NOT a good thing (unless you like the cold that is).

Here is the forecast off of the day 10 EURO for today…this would be valid on the 18th. What happens in other parts of the hemisphere is dictating our weather here, which is typical if a “blocking” pattern. There is a large area of warmth building through the northern Atlantic basin through Greenland. Then there is a large area of warm (compared to average) that maintains itself through the NW territories. These two areas essentially “link” together and that means that the cold air has nowhere to go but to the south…and that means southern Canada and the central and eastern US get unusually cold for a long time…click on the image below to see what I’m referring too…it shows the temperatures at around 5,000′ or so.

ecm_t850_anom_noram_11

Interestingly the day 10 hi res GFS model is “sort off” trying to do something similar…

gfs_t850a_noram_41

You can see the “warmth” compared to average across AK, the Arctic regions and towards Greenland and the eastern Canadian Maritime region…again this forces the coldest air farther south … this is a prolonged cold period.

So after all that let’s recap…

For the next 3 days see the forecast part at the top…

From there…TUE (12th)-20th+…increasing likelihood of prolonged cold weather…we’re talking most days with highs in the 30s and depending on the cloud factor lows closer to 10-15°.  I would not be surprised if there is a snow maker nearby next weekend. Overnight lows though will be determined by clouds and there may be a bunch out there on WED and FRI keeping lows in the 20s on those mornings…

Wow! This will be an impressive cold stretch. Something else of note…at some point we’ll have to start to moderate as the pattern relaxes…it may not happen till after the 20th-22nd or so…but it has to happen…and that “may” work out for Thanksgiving week…we’ll see.

Joe