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Joe’s Weather Blog: Novembuary Cold Ahead (MON-11/10)

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Good morning…today will be a day noted for the wind ahead of the wind forecast but the good news is that we should make a serious run towards 70° this afternoon before the big cold front sweeps through the area…

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies will give way to more clouds later on. South winds will increase this morning to 20-35 MPH as temperatures soar to near 70° with some lower 70s possible in spots. It’s the last day of great weather for a longgggg time it appears…at least 10 days or so.

Tonight: The arctic front will sweep in between 5PM and 8PM…this will send the winds towards the NW and increase to 20-40 MPH in gusts. Temperatures will fall from the 60s to the 40s then 30s over the course of about 4 hours or so. Eventually down into the 20s with wind chills in the 10-15° range by daybreak. Any precip would be very light and probably spotty. There may be a few sprinkles/showers near or SE of KC as the front moves through…then there is the potential of some near daybreak snowflakes/flurries out there. There could also be a few patches of some light freezing drizzle too in spots. The bottom line is blustery weather.

Tomorrow: Morning clouds give way to partly cloudy skies. Cold and breezy with highs near 35°

Discussion:

Well there it is…via NEXLAB, it’s the big cold front that we’ve talked over and over about.

Temperatures in the northern Plains (in RED) are in the 10-25° range and will go nowhere today…the cold air will press south and reach our area early this evening.

It could be worse…take a look at this forecast for the upper Midwest today>TUE.

The folks in the MSP area may be right on the dividing line of the significant snow…and amounts from the south side may vary a lot with the far north side of the MSP area. Radar this AM shows that there isn’t even anything significant falling south of MSP as of this writing…

 

That would not be an enjoyable day to forecast the weather up there…those gradients are a killer to forecasters sometimes and so frustrating.

For us the cold front as mentioned above arrives early this evening…here is the HRRR model showing the temperatures at 6PM tonight. You can see the changes from the 60s to the 20s over the course of about a 2-3 hour drive from SE>NW…

hrrr_t2m_kc_12

Let’s use some perspective on this cold air…it’s really not unusual for us to get these cold snaps like what we’re going to see over the next 24 hours…what is unusual is that it’s going to last for such a long time. I’m expecting at least 10 days of below average temperatures in a row…maybe more. It won’t be a little below average…it’s going to be some 15-25° below average for most of that time (at least for highs). The average high for this week is around 55°. So we’ll be well above that today and well below that from TUE onwards for a long time it appears.

By the way…remember last week how I was preaching the potential 70° weather ahead of the front…I was concerned about high clouds cutting that potential over the weekend so I kept the upper 60s forecast. IF we hit 70° at KCI today I will be mad at myself, because it looks like the high clouds are not going to be too big of an issue today after all and with the front coming at 6PM or so…we may max out right ahead of the front itself. Grrrrr.

The bottom line is that we’ll be cold through the rest of the week into the weekend. There will be periodic reinforcing shots of cold weather moving through the region for the next 10 days. One of these shots will come over the weekend. That will be watched because there is a chance of some snow somewhere in there with this shot. It’s far too early to deal with that and we’ll look further into that as the week moves along…consider this a shot across the bow though about that potential.

For snow lovers we have so much cold air in place and coming that it would be a waste not to get some snow out there…but I’m sure many want no part of that at this point.

Patterns like this can only hold on for so long…and considering how much colder it would be IF there was extensive snow on the ground…we’re lucky in that regard. Eventually things will start to moderate, if for no other reason that the cold air source that we’ll be tapping will eventually run out of really cold air to deliver to the Plains. Now the next issue from there will be as this occurs will there be a storm coming in from the west or SW and tap into the remaining cold air in place…that too wouldn’t shock me even though it’s not showing up on the model guidance at this point.

I’ll tell you what though…this is still a very cold look (via Unisys) for the weekend…that cold core in Canada is moving southwards…

 

It’s amazing to see something play out as expected from 8-9 days ago…

Joe