Joe’s Weather Blog: A See Saw Week + Where’s The Snow? (SUN-11/30)

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Good afternoon…we’ll we were expecting the return of the arctic air near daybreak…and sure enough it got here between 4AM-7AM through the region and now cold air is pouring southwards. We’re going to see some sunshine this afternoon so the temperatures should hold steady or maybe even go up a few degrees before the day is done.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing and cold with lows of 10-15°. Winds will taper off, but whatever breeze there is will create wind chills near to potentially sub-zero overnight into tomorrow AM.

Tomorrow: Fair skies with some clouds filtering out the sunshine. Highs 25-30°

Tomorrow night: after an initial drop in the temperatures in the evening into the teens, a return of SE winds should slow the drop and actually we could see rising AM temperatures into TUE morning.

Tuesday: Clouds and sunshine with more of a south breeze. The air aloft will be warming fast but there is a question how much wind will stir that air towards the surface. We may make 40-45° with enough wind and sunshine.

Discussion:

I will say that these last two Novembers will go down as memorable, if for no other reason than we’ve had strong areas of high pressure build in from the Arctic region sending the barometric pressure readings through the roof. This afternoon the weather map is showing a strong area of high pressure building southwards…

 

See it up there in MT. That’s a 1038mb high that equals 30.65″. We’ve had stronger ones this month, but that’s pretty good.

Of course all that high pressure is really just cold, dense air that exerts a downwards force on the ground…hence “high” pressure. You can see the cold air quite easily with the latest temperatures in the US via the OK Mesonet.

 

As of noon at least…notice the stark contrast from NW AR into NW MO…about a 45° change which expands to a 60° change once yo go farther northwards into NE.

The 24 hour change map is pretty impressive through the Plains region.

 

Some of those lighter purples as of the noon hour are more than 50° worth of change from 24 hours ago. Hastings yesterday hit 80°!

Despite all these changes though…we’re pretty dry. Not much is expected over the next 5+ days…there may be a system on THU…we’ll see.

Now that “meteorological” winter is about to begin (12/1) many are wondering about the snow…and for those that are…you’re going to need patience for awhile. There really is nothing promising showing up for the next 10-14 days or so…and this is what I thought of last week when I was putting together my winter thoughts…I still think we’re going to have to wait till perhaps near or well after the 15th to get something going for better chances. If by early JAN we’re in the same boat…then my forecast will already be in rough shape. I’m expecting a lot of weather changes again from around the 20th through the 10th of January…until then though a lot of ups and some downs heading this way.

As of yesterday this November is 6th in terms of the coldest Novembers in KC weather history. Today though the “official” high was 56° (set after 12AM) so this will be one of those days where when we look back in 20 years just at the numbers, we won’t remember that an arctic front moved in before daybreak.

By the way…this front with lots of snow on the ground north of us, which there isn’t right now, would be even colder in JAN/FEB. This airmass is moderating as it moves southwards over the bare ground. Snowcover out there and that wouldn’t happen so readily. Just saying.

For those that may have missed out…this morning on FOX 4 News Sunday morning, we held the traditional lighting of the “Joe”. If you missed out here is the video.

 

What can I say...I blame it on my fever.

That's it for today...not feeling so great and frankly it's just plane cold out and there really isn't a lot of weather happening in KC this week.

Joe

 

 

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