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Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow On The Way To KC (10PM Update-WED)

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Good evening…snow has broken out to the SW of KC and it’s a matter of time, and waiting for dry air above the surface to saturate for us to get the snow to start falling in KC…radar will be in the discussion part of the blog. Meanwhile the potential for a longer than normal commute tomorrow is still there in KC while some of the outlying areas may have a harder time than KC proper…

Forecast:

Overnight: Snow arrives, at times on the moderate side. Accumulations by morning will be 1-4″ in the area, although KC proper my be on the lower side of these numbers. Other areas (talked about in the discussion) may be more vulnerable to more snow than KC. Temperatures as the snow picks up will fall into the 26-28° range

Thursday: Snow winds down with little accumulation after 8-10AM or so. Cloudy skies and chilly temperatures with highs around 32°

Friday: Clouds again with highs struggling (again) around 30-35°

Discussion:

Let’s first start out with radar showing how the snow is advancing NEwards…

 

There have been reports in Emporia of moderate snow this evening. Wichita has received about 2″ of snow. The snow is moving towards the ENE…and as of this writing you can see some of the pockets of heavier snow. As of 9PM Ottawa and Emporia are around 1″ of snow on the ground.

We’re essentially in watch mode at this point. The model solutions are still showing bands of heavier accumulations in various parts of the area…some show a band of 3-5″ snows right up I-35 into KC proper…the RAP model also shows some heavier totals from I-35 up into KC and southwards. The latest NAM model shows heavier totals NW and SE of KC and the hi-res NAM model has some heavier totals NW and SE of KC as well.

All this continues to be problematic in determining where the heaviest snow shapes up in the end. I’m not exactly jumping up and down with the radar presentation at this point.

 

Here is the HRRR model that should update overnight tonight

 

 

In reality though the models are now pretty useless and essentially we’ll just be watching radar and watching how the echoes develop and move from point A>B

I still feel that even after all of this…we’ll probably get about 1-3″ in KC proper. There will be some bigger totals out there but odds favor this happening around KC and not in the city (on average). Could somebody get 3+” in KC…sure but again I think most will be under that in KC.

There will be (as talked about ad nauseum) bands of locally higher accumulations out there…closer to 4″ or so. Exactly where those bands set up is tough to pinpoint with a ton of confidence…but one band, at least,  seems likely to develop and linger towards the NW of KC from near Atchison, KS to around Topeka(?).

As I look at the water vapor images…it almost looks like we’re trying to temporarily dry slot(?) as well (at least as of this writing) in SC and SE KS…that would try and spin our way after the initial burst of snow for a few hours.

 

Overall far too complicated for a snow system that is just a few hours away.

Joe

 

 

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