Joe’s Weather Blog: January Thaw Commences Friday (WED-1/14)

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We’re almost halfway through “meteorological” winter in the KC area…and while the 1st 45 days or so are on the cooler end of the winter spectrum (39th coolest through yesterday) many would probably say that it hasn’t been that terrible of a winter. Odds are the reason being that we’ve had little snow of significance to write and/or talk about. We’re still shy of 5″ of snow at KCI.

Forecast:

Rest of today: Mostly cloudy skies and seasonable. Highs should be in the 35-40° range.

Tonight: Fair and chilly with lows in the 20s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and seasonable with highs in the 40-45° range

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the 55° range. Windy though with gusts to 20-30 MPH possible.

Discussion:

The other day on FB and Twitter I asked if folks were “happy” about the lack of snow or “unhappy about the lack of snow. I figured the majority of ones who answered were “happy” about the lack of snow. I goth through around 200+ of the 700 responses and interestingly to me at least it ended up about 50/50. Perhaps a slight lean towards the “unhappy” viewpoint. Most of those who were “happy” about the status of the snow this season were glad about the lack of hassles while driving. Some were work related. Others who were unhappy about things missed the “prettiness’ of the snow and also the moisture aspect of things.

Well for now at least the happy people are about to be a lot happier as our usual January thaw is about to commence and it’s timed out to the coldest time of the winter in the KC area.

As I mentioned at the top of the blog, we’re just about 1/2 way done with winter here in KC from a “meteorological” standpoint. Our average temperature through yesterday was 30.1° which is the 39th coolest through the 12th of JAN. Click on the following image to make it more readable. the late 70s were the coldest and the early 90s were in the warmest categories…this winter so far is just “meh” from a temperature standpoint.

Capture

 

I’ve already written about the snow aspect…and prospects still don’t look good anytime soon.

December was decidedly a mild month. Temperatures were about 3.5° above average. So far this JAN though we’re definitely starting out the month well below average…close to 8.5° as a matter of fact. That’s significant but will really change over the next 5 days or so as the “thaw” starts. The overall pattern ofter that is colder I think. So odds are favoring the month to end up below average.

Which means FEB may be the month that determines how “winter” shapes up.

The “warmest” day of the thaw may well be Friday. Model data suggests that IF we have enough mixing in the atmosphere (enough wind to stir the air through 3-4K feet) we have the potential to see highs into the 60s! I think it’s possible. It seems every time we’ve had “milder” air just above the surface this winter and we’ve had wind…we’ve really exceeded the forecast highs. Now the winds on FRI may be more of the 20-30 MPH as opposed to the 30-40 MPH of past warm-ups so perhaps we don’t fully “mix out” but I think 55-60° would be very doable and IF I was forecasting for FRI I would be very aggressive with temperatures. Monday may be pushing the highs again but I’m not sure we’re going to have a lot of wind to stir the air up to it’s fullest potential. There should be a front coming through on Saturday afternoon that may temper things a bit…but overall the forecast is warm through Monday or so.

By the way…over the last month or so we’ve been working on upgrading our graphic computers. MT debuted the system last night and it really does some cool things but we’re going to take awhile to “flesh” these things out. In some aspects I really like what the system offers, in other ways I do miss some of the features of the past system. It will be a learning experience for us to bear with us. I noticed that the forecast graphics aren’t updating on the web. Hopefully this will be rectified this week. So bear with us as we start growing into our new computers.

That’s it for now. Enjoy the warmth and for about 1/2 of you the “lack” of snow this winter so far.

Joe

 

 

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