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Joe’s Weather Blog: The Boring Blahs (MON-1/19)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

First of all we’re thrilled by the addition of the newest member of the FOX 4 Weather team. Little baby Kaci was born over the weekend. We have a picture for you on our FB fan page and folks are being kind to leave their comments as well. Rumor has it the baby will be running in it’s 1st 5K next weekend as soon as it rests a couple of days and gets used to the warm temperatures 🙂

Forecast:

Today: Sunny this morning into the early afternoon. There may be some clouds moving in during the afternoon. IF thoses clouds don’t make it to the area highs today easily have the potential of soaring to 60°+. Even after our chilly start with lows in the mid 20s. Teens in some areas. Pretty impressive for January! The atmosphere is actually warmer this morning than it was yesterday and we hit 59° yesterday.

Tonight: A weak front will move through. Temperatures by daybreak will drop to near 30° (still 10° above average).

Tomorrow: Maybe not as warm but still very pleasant for JAN with a mix of sun and clouds highs should be near 50°.

Discussion:

Interesting sounding (balloon launch) this morning from the NWS in Topeka. The atmosphere is warmer today than yesterday. There wasn’t a lot of wind yesterday and we still stirred the air to about 3000′ or so. Should the same thing happen today highs would soar to 65-70°! It’s not out of the question!

This weather, for a meteorologist who has a passion for changing wintertime weather is getting rather dull. Good weather is fine, don’t get me wrong. But endless days of dry weather in the winter especially does make things rather boring. It’s a struggle to find things to talk about and sitting and waiting for the model long range projections is getting to be a fruitless experience of seeing an assortment of cold fronts with little overall moisture move through the region.

The winter overall nationally hasn’t been overly exciting. At times the lake effect machine was very impressive. A month and a half ago CA was getting slammed by storms…now San Fransisco is in the process of seeing their driest January in their history (so far) with not a drop of rainfall.

The Pacific NW was rather dry in the late fall and early winter…now they are very wet. The country overall (east of the Rockies) is running close to average over the last 60 days or so…

The yellow and the 1st shade of green represent temperatures +/- 2°…and that takes up most of the country east of the Rockies. West of the Rockies the warm weather has been the trend.

It seems like a long time ago but OK had a bunch of rainfall…it was so beneficial for the drought down there but notice how the dry weather is prevalent again through increasing areas of the southern Plains.

 

Areas of the SE, S TX and the Northern Rockies are wetter than average. A wet November in Oklahoma City has been replaced by dryness again. The GFS model has some hope that there may be more west coast moisture by the end of the month or early FEB.

For the next 7 days though…moisture looks very limited in the Plains states…than means no snow (so what else is new) and no rain either.

Early this morning I spent some time on the great IA State website poking around and seeing what I could find for the KC area…like I said it’s getting boring and tough to write a blog these days. Here are some nuggets of information.

Capture

The image above takes the weather history of KCI going back to the early 1970s. It then calculates the hourly temperatures and figures out what the frequency of the temperatures were. For example on the fara left…for the month of JAN…about 60% of the time the hourly temperatures are lower than 32° (dark blue). Some 95% of the time temperatures are below 50°. This helps me to tell you how the temperatures for the last few days are somewhat unusual! Only about 5% of the hours in JAN show highs of 50° or above! Today we’ll add more to that.

Capture1

In the map above…a temperature trace of the highs and lows going back to 10/1 is shown. The blue shaded area represents average. Notice the two cold periods…roughly in mid NOV then again in early JAN. The warm “spikes have been short lived but the one we’re into now may be the biggest one (compared to average) seen since perhaps late OCT.

 

 

In the map above…basically it’s just a reflection of the last 7 days of weather in terms of highs and lows…you can clearly see we’re now on the “right side” of average in terms of getting milder weather in the KC area.

So how unusual is this warmth…well the image below (somewhat confusing) compares the likelihood of having one type of temperature in JAN and the same “type” of temperature in JULY. Ber with me…here is a description of a quantile-quantile chart directly from the website.

” The featured chart is called a quantile quantile plot, which compares identical quantiles for two populations. In this case, the daily highs for July and December are compared for KC. Each dot represents the same quantile for each populations and the red line is a least squares fit for dots. The correlation coefficient is nearly one, which indicates that the two populations have a very similarly shaped distribution”

Capture2

 

If you’re not confused…see the 2 black lines (55/98°)? This means that a temperature of 55° in JAN is equivalent to a temperature of 98° in July in terms of “unusualness”. So a 60° day in JAN is the same as a 101° day in July. IF we can hit 70° in JAN that’s the equivalent of about 107° in July. Weird chart I know but somewhat interesting to think about.

Finally…this chart….we’re now on 323 straight days without a Winter Storm Warning in the KC area…

Capture3

Capture4

and 760 days without a Blizzard warning issued by the NWS in KC.

Check out the Topeka NWS though…1447 days since their last Blizzard Warning!

Like I said I’m getting desperate for something to write about!

The featured photo is from @Creepyhorseman via twitter. Thank you sir.

Joe

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