Happening now: Mo. families protest border family separation outside Sen. Roy Blunt’s KC office

Joe’s Weather Blog: 60+ MPH Winds/Pouring Snow=Blizzard (MON-1/26)

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The events unfolding in the eastern part of the country are going to be fascinating to watch from afar. Hopefully this time there won’t be any stupid politician complaining that they didn’t know it was coming…or they had no idea it would be this bad or whatever else they want to say to cover their…you know whats. This storm, for parts of the NE will be epic in nature. Challenging records left and right.

There is the potential that there could be a few curve balls with this, as there are with almost every powerful storm. I’m still wondering about how this will all play out in the NYC area and down through NJ. East and NE of there though…this will be one that will be remembered for a long time.

Already thousands of flights have been cancelled today and tomorrow….with more coming tomorrow and Wednesday as the digging out will take time…the winds will see to that. In addition to the significant snowfall…there will be the matter of the long term cold as well for the next 10+ days there. Some amazing cold is possible down the road as bitterly cold arctic air moves towards that region. There will be additional snow chances as well. Weather folks there are in for a 2 week period of their lives I think with constant parades of cold air masses and snow threats.

Meanwhile for KC…nothing but warmth for a few days…record warmth at that on Wednesday. Then cooler weather later in the week and colder weather over the weekend.

Forecast for KC:

Today: Sunny and after a frosty start highs should rebound well into the 50s

Tonight: Fair skies and cool with lows near 30°

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and mild again with highs in the 50s.

Discussion:

I think the headline from the Boston Herald, as well as some of the other NYC area newspapers say it all…

 

This one will be a whooper. I looked at some maps last night…and another facet of the storm, especially the farther up the coast you go will be the winds and the potential coastal flooding. The EURO model was showing winds in excess of 75 MPH up the coast from Boston last night (in gusts) valid for Tuesday.

The high res NAM model was showing close to 40-50 kt winds before the gusts…and that brings the storm surge to the forefront of concerns as well with this beast.

hires_uv10m_boston_30

Notice around and north of Cape Cod…how the winds would be funneling the water into the bay around Boston…then heaving the Ocean waters onshore, around the circulation of the system. Coastal flooding will be another big issue with this storm.

Between the winds, the snow that will be measured by the yard stick and the battering waves/flooding, this thing is going to knock out a lot of power in areas hardest hit. The only small sliver of good news is that snow ratios will be on the high side for this part of the country…that translates into a more powdery type snow and not the backbreaking heavy packing snows that they are used to. In the end they won’t really know how much snow actually fell because of the blowing and the drifting. Wow!

Here are the regional radar pictures of the storm…it will really get it’s act together overnight into tomorrow the farther up the coast you go.

 

In terms of specifics…here are the forecasted snowfall totals from Boston southwards through the NY area.

 

 

 

I still have this feeling that somebody isn’t going to get nearly the snow their expecting…but at least the morning run of the NAM model suggests they are all going to get a ton of snow. One reason why is the eventual slow movement of the storm overnight and into tomorrow morning off the coast of Long Island. This allows moisture to continuously be slung around the storm’s circulation and into the cold air over the land areas…yielding incredible amounts of snowfall.

The liquid equivalent of this is on the order of 1-3″ in the NE coastal areas…converting that using a rough ratio of 15:1…yields 15-45″ of snow across a vast area. Now maybe 3″ is a push but still even 2″ liquid would equate to 35″ of snow…and again with all the wind involved it will be impossible to measure accurately.

Late last night I really wondered about the NYC forecasts…and they have cut their totals by about a foot but still it would be one of their biggest storms on record.

The surface reflection of the storm will be fascinating to watch as well…the following map are the surface pressure fields…the black lines are isobars which are basically lines of equal pressure…look for the storm to intensify and watch the black lines start forming more closed circles…that shows the storm strengthening…

 

 

It’s really a text book set-up there…see that closed black circle in northern New England…that’s high pressure and that’s feeding the colder surface air southwards…eliminating the transition chances along most of the coastal areas.

This will be a cool water vapor to check back in on overnight tonight as the storm really gets going…

 

What a soon-to-be storm!

As far as the KC area goes…blah blah blah. Let’s keep and eye for this weekend and the potential of some colder weather. the EURO model is trying to generate some accumulating snow…but I wouldn’t get my hopes up for this potential yet. as far as the warm goes…see yesterday’s blog for the potential on Wednesday of temperatures getting out of control on the warm side.

Have a great day…the national cable channels and network newscasts will be having a field day with the Blizzard of 2015…all while we can think about wearing shorts and driving around with the top down on the car or at least the sunroof open.

Joe

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