Joe’s Weather Blog: Beware The Colder Forecast (MON-2/9)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Good morning…chillier out there today as north winds and clouds are going to conspire to keep temperatures about 20-25° cooler than yesterday. We ended up hitting 62° at KCI and 67° in Downtow0n KC. We’re done with that type of weather for awhile…and while this will be an up and down week for temperatures…next week continues to look colder than average…and that chill may stick around for awhile.

Forecast:

Today: Cloudy skies with some thin spots in the afternoon possible. Temperatures should struggle all-day today and I dropped the high to 40° last night for today…even that could be a push IF we don’t see the clouds thin or break enough. Winds N 5-12 MPH. There should be sunshine towards the south of KC where highs today may pop to 45°

Tonight: We should see some breaks in the clouds overnight…more clear skies towards the south of KC. These low clouds will be stubborn for some of you, especially the farther north you go into NW and NC MO. KC appears to potentially be very close to the clouds line.

Tomorrow: Being optimistic with highs forecast to be in the 50s. On the assumption we get sunshine and enough of a south flow of air in the PM hours. I should mention that there is a chance that the moisture that moves in today gets trapped in the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere and the warm air above it creates an inversion. Inversions can be gray times in KC until they break. There won’t be a lot of wind tomorrow AM…so IF we don’t break the clouds tonight and IF we get stuck in the muck overnight…it may be tough to break tomorrow. Those clouds will impact the high temperature forecast by 10° tomorrow.

Discussion:

Waking up and my twitter timeline (@fox4wx) is blowing up with all the snow that is falling again in the New England area. I spent some time on this last night. It’s really amazing how much snow has fallen up there in the bigger cities. Boston and Worcester are picking it up like crazy. Over 5 FEET of snow in the last couple of weeks.

and there not alone…as you move up the coast…MA is really getting hit as well…and it’s not melting!

Boston has broke it’s 30 day snow total record (61.6″) with just over 5 FEET of snow since 1/10.

Aside from the travel nightmare and all the other issues (schools closing etc) there is serious concern the the buildings themselves may not tolerate all this snow…especially flat-roofed structures. The weight of the snow itself…can get too heavy for structures to support and there have been a handful of roof cave-ins under the weight of the snow.

 

Meanwhile you can really see on the snow totals through the Plains that this has been a north of I-70 winter…the I-80 corridor is doing respectable with regards to snowfall this winter.

NOT expecting to add to those totals this week in KC. There will be some cold fronts moving through…and brief dips into colder air masses but while there is a day or two of cold…there should be moderation in between.

One of those air masses is moving into the area WED>THU…another will dip in SAT into SUN. I was really wrestling with the weekend forecast last night. At 1st I thought we may only be in the 20s-30° for the weekend. Then I backed off that and just forecast highs 5-10° below average…more in the 35-40° range. I’m not sure how this will play out precisely. I may have been too optimistic about the 35-40° forecast by about 10° or so. Something to watch regarding the weekend trends.

So I feel confident that THU will be the coldest day (MON-FRI) of the work week. I’m not 100% confident about the weekend though…and it may well end up to be colder (25-30° for highs) than what I showed last night. The bottom line is that we may end up near the western edge of a pretty cold air mass dropping southwards…how far west that air mass drops will determine how below average we are over the weekend.

There is going to be a pattern shift coming NEXT week…probably a week from tomorrow or so that should allow about a 3-5+ day period of below average temperatures through most of the central and eastern Plains region including KC. There is the issue about whether or not we cold get some wintry weather with this shift. As I explained last night (you were probably watching the Grammys) we will have the cold air delivery mechanism going…now will there be any moisture from the Pacific to create snow? Still an issue although there is a window around the 17th for something to happen as the cold air is moved southwards into the Plains. The pattern this winter when the cold weather has locked in for 5-7+ days is that the cold overwhelms the pattern and drives the best moisture to the south of the I-70 corridor. OK/TX get the wintry weather and we get periods of clouds. It’s not out of the question that that happens again after the 17th or so.

So the bottom line is that next week is certainly a colder week overall…with some sort of storm possible on the 17th (give or take) and cold weather overall through the week. Monday the 16th may be a salvageable day ahead of the cold air mass descending into the Plains region.

I leave you with this…

Have a great Monday…

Joe

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s