Joe’s Weather Blog: Hello Meteorological Spring (SUN-3/1)

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Welcome to meteorological spring! Also it’s NEXT Sunday that we set our clocks ahead 1 hour as daylight saving time begins in KC.

Forecast: (1PM Update)

Tonight: Some clearing and potentially some fog as well. Lows in the teens

Tomorrow: Variable clouds and sunshine and not as cold but still well below average. Highs in the mid 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and mild. Temperatures warming to near 50° then falling in the PM hours behind a cold front. There may be some shower activity as well.

Discussion:

The best way for you to keep track of the snow today will be to follow radar. You’ll be able to figure out where the snow has been and where it’s going. There will be some heavier bursts under that band…but it appears the band is moving fast enough and may not totally fill back in like what happened last night when an additional 1″ of snow fell. There is a chance that some sleet may mix in as well with the heaviest stuff.

 

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for the region from KC southwards…these go through early this evening although after this band is done before lunch or so..things will settle down for 36 hours or so.

The counties in blue are under the advisory while the pink counties towards the I-44 corridor are under winter storm warnings.

Storm totals from KCI are now up to 1.3″ while here at FOX 4 we had at least 2″ and there were some 3″+ totals on the south side of KC. Amounts were 4-6″ towards the US 50 corridor SE of the metro.

The NWS from Pleasant Hill posted a map showing the snow that fell through the region…

Boonville and Columbia were the jackpot winners of the snowfall with 6.5″.

So with the storm moving away…it’s now time to put that to bed and talk about the next weather feature of note that will be moving into the region as quickly as tomorrow evening and Tuesday because the cold air mass in place will be dislodged and replaced by much warmer air that will quickly move into the region complements of strong winds aloft and eventually at the surface.

The afternoon satellite pictures show a disturbance in CA. Yesterday there were thunderstorms there, even some hail in Sonoma…that disturbance will be breaking up into 2 distinct pieces and 1 will for sure affect us directly. We’ll see about the 2nd disturbance.

 

That disturbance will split up…and one piece will zip up towards NE on Tuesday. What that will do for us is to strengthen the winds aloft and at the surface and turn those winds towards the the south. This brings in much milder air into the region.

Here is the forecast map for 5000′ or so…notice the temperatures which are in °C and notice how warm they’re getting up the I-35 corridor. That’s around 10°C or close to 50° up there. Surface winds will be quickly increasing on Monday evening and temperatures will respond overnight Monday into Tuesday by staying steady or even rising. So that when you wake up on Tuesday it should be windy and near 35-40°+. It would be even warmer IF there wasn’t snow all over the place from KC southwards. As this warmer air rushes in…there may be a band of showers develop near KC and zip towards the north very quickly overnight Monday. Something to note…surface temperatures (with all the snow around) may be near 32° when this occurs…something to pay attention to and keep up with tomorrow evening.

With the 1st piece of the storm moving towards the NW of KC…it will likely create a dry slot in the atmosphere and shut down the rainfall potential rather quickly Tuesday AM.

Then a cold front, attached to the storm will sweep through the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will likely fall rather hard behind that front n Tuesday depending on the timing of things. Assuming the front moves through near lunch…we’ll go from near 50° back down to near 30° in the evening.

Here is the forecast map for TUE AM…

sfc

So we’re set through Tuesday PM…as the colder air sweeps through the area…

Another note…IF the colder air is delayed by 6 hours or so…we could easily be in the 50s on TUE.

Now…I mentioned that this is one piece of the storm, passing towards the NW of KC…there have been some interesting developments on a couple of the models today. Specifically the NAM and the EURO.

Both these models are taking a 2nd chunk of the system in CA and bringing it through the area (or nearby). What the effect of this is, with the front and moisture sitting towards AR…is that the moisture is then brought back northwards + you’d also have some moisture from the 2nd disturbance coming into the cold air. You can imagine what that would mean.

Here is the way the NAM model shows things for 9AM WED…it would have another 1-5″ event from KC southwards…in much the same way this weekends accums went. It is the farthest north solution doing this. I then highlighted the EURO solution of where it thinks the significant wintry precip would be…MUCH farther south. Odds DO NOT favor the NAM solution

nam_precip_mslp_mc_26

For sure it will be colder for WED>THU before we moderate nicely heading towards the weekend. I’ve promised you a warmer weekend NEXT weekend (in time for the time change) for the past 2-3 weeks or so…it’s still looking good.

Our featured photo is from Steven () in Warrensburg…they had at least 5.5″ of snow.

Have a great week!

Joe

 

 

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