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Joe’s Weather Blog: Water spout + people flying + severe weather + strong cold front (MON-3/2)

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Good afternoon…this blog will have some amazing video in it of a water spout hitting a beach in Brazil yesterday…it was strong enough so that people were actually picked up and thrown by the strong winds. Also since it touches on severe weather…I need to mention that this is “severe weather awareness” week in KS and MO. That means you’ll hear a siren test tomorrow at 1:30 I believe Also we have a VERY changeable next 36 hours heading towards the area as we warm up then turn much colder again!

Forecast: (8:30 PM Update)

Tonight: Cloudy skies with patches of drizzle or light rain developing towards 12AM or afterwards…this mostly should be liquid as opposed to frozen. Areas in N MO have a chance of seeing some very light glazing. Temperatures will be 32-35° so it’s something to watch for a localized area or two. As of 9PM road/pavement temperatures are running near 36+°. So whatever falls may not freeze (should anything fall in KC overnight). With that said there are probably some localized areas and perhaps a few bridges and overpasses that may be near 32° overnight. So just pay attention to that in case there is an isolated slick spot or two out there. At 8PM the air temperatures are 33° in a good part of the region and with dewpoints near 20° there could be some cooling should precip start to fall dropping the air temperature to 31 or 32°. Anyway just be alert to that potential.

Tomorrow: Warming temperatures overnight tonight means temperatures by daybreak should be near 40° and we should rise to near 50° (or higher) for some who can see thin spots in the clouds with some scattered light drizzle or showers during the day. The front should move in during the afternoon then sending the temperatures back downwards to near 20° by the late evening. There may be a few flurries as well but no accums expected.

Wednesday: Variable clouds and colder with highs near 30°. There may be a stripe of some light snow well south of KC in the AM…mainly towards Butler/Clinton/Sedalia and the Lakes region then south through the I-44 corridor. The NAM model continues to try to bring this closer to KC. At this point we’ll continue to discount it…although flurries can’t be ruled out I guess this far north.

Discussion:

Everything is proceeding according to plan for the most part. Temperatures today are moderating as the cold weather from the weekend has dislodged and is moving away from the region. Increasing south winds tonight will keep the temperatures mostly on a level playing field, if not send them up a few degrees after dropping briefly in the evening.

The models are struggling with the onset of any rain chances and also with the surface temperatures. For example the hi-res NAM has rain here this afternoon with temperatures near 32°…not going to happen.

Many are also having a tough time resolving the potential arm up tomorrow but it’s a tough forecast because we’ll be fighting a lot of low level cloud cover. Should we be able to mix the atmosphere a little and break up the low clouds, the air aloft is pretty warm tomorrow) we should see temperatures pop to 45-50°. There is higher potential tomorrow but a lot has to happen for that to play out. It could though and it wouldn’t surprise me. IF the front held off a few more hours…then chances would increase on warmer temperatures…

Here is the forecast of the NAM model for tomorrow afternoon…don’t necessarily worry about what it says for us…pay more attention to what it says for the Plains overall and the colder weather in NE and the Dakotas. Click on the image to make it larger…

nam_t2m_mw_12

So we know it will get cold again…but this may be the last “real” cold shot for quite some time.

We should moderate to near 50° FRI/SAT then into the 50s+ on Sunday I think.

Tomorrow is also severe weather day as part of severe weather week in KC. There are a bunch of stats and information about severe weather for MO and KS on this link provided by the NWS.

You;ll hear a siren test on Tuesday at 1:30…although I wonder if we have a lot of low cloud cover and a front moving into the region…if that test may get postponed.

Finally on the subject of severe weather…check this put. a water spout came ashore on a beach in Brazil yesterday. The beach goers watched at 1st then realized that perhaps then should run away. Bad idea. They were probably better off lying face down in the sand than running and becoming more vertical objects and more subject to being lifted up.

Those small black dots are people being thrown by the tornadic winds. There were some injuries reported. It’s given the moniker water spout when the circulation is over the water…when it hits the land (beach) it’s then called a tornado.

Pretty amazing stuff.

Joe

 

 

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