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Joe’s Weather Blog: Living On The Edge (FRI-3/13)

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Some may consider the 2nd FRI the 13th (of the year) as bad luck (there is one more in the fall I think)…but Mother Nature is treating us kindly today…while areas not that far away are dealing with gray and rainy conditions…specifically down towards the I-44 corridor into S MO and AR as well.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and pleasant once again with lows near 40°

Tomorrow: Slightly cooler but still fabulous with highs in the 60s. We may be fighting some high clouds/filtered sunshine for awhile in the morning hours into early tomorrow afternoon

Sunday: Warmer again with highs in the 70s

Monday: Warm and breezy with highs well into the 70s

Discussion:

Soggy weather is just sitting towards the south of the KC area…while we’re still livin’ large in the metro. As we expected the rain stayed away from KC overnight…there was some rain towards the Sedalia area with Sedalia picking up .10″.  Amounts down there have been under .20″ or so…

Others have gotten more farther southwards…here are the doppler estimated totals from the NWS radar in Springfield

 

At 1PM it was around 70° in KC and 53° in Springfield, MO.

You can see the circulation of the storm by following the wind reports on the surface weather map for the southern part of the country at 1PM…the surface low is in the SW AR area…it’s broad and weak.

 

The temperatures are in RED…and notice that we’re warmer here than the Gulf coast of TX and SW LA as of 1PM at least.

The cloud shield from the storm has tried to get closer and closer to KC but since the storm is to our south, as the moisture aloft moves northwards it’s thinning out and so we just deal with “garbage” types of clouds…

 

Closer to home some cooler air will work southwards overnight through midday tomorrow. Then that air mass will rapidly modify in the March sunshine and another nice afternoon will be had in the region.

No point talking about SUN>MON…more nice weather. Record on Monday is 82° set in 2012…here are the warmest St Patrick’s eve days…

Capture

We’ll probably see more seasonable weather, maybe even below average, for TUE-FRI next week. From there it gets less predictive.

The EURO model may be tripping out with an upper level storm meandering through Mexico and forecast to move southwards towards Baja California. It then opens up eventually and moves into the southern Plains on WED giving us at least a chance of some rain but even then while it generates rain here, it does it with the best energy to the south of KC. So I’m NOT confident of it’s solution at all from this far out.

The GFS more or less does the same thing but keeps the vast majority of the rainfall towards the south of the KC area…and this may be more correct with the remnant disturbance near or south of the I-44 corridor.

The end result though of this is cooler weather (more seasonable to perhaps a bit below average at this point) moving our way after MON of next week.

Meanwhile…here is Cyclone Pam…I wrote about it yesterday…if you want to loop the image(s) go to this link. Image via http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/

 

The storm has raked through Port Vila, Vanuatu. Again this is east of Australia in the southern hemisphere. This morning it was packing winds of over 160 MPH…it’s a nasty looking storm in an area of the world where the water temperatures are above average too.

By the way…notice the movement…everything is reversed in the southern hemisphere…the cyclone is moving from the north to the south. Cold fronts move from the south to the north.

It was an impressive looking storm close-up at 10:22 this morning via the NASA Suomi satellite pass.

 

That’s about it for today…I can’t promise a blog tomorrow because I’me presenting an award on behalf of the KC AMS and then I immediately go from their to the Snake Saturday parade in North KC where I’m announcing the parade for all the participants. So my Saturday is very busy. These two weeks every year are jam packed with seminars and community events for me…happens every year! Monday I have another seminar with various emergency managers, the NWS as well as supposedly other local TV stations. Then I’ll be one of many from FOX 4 in the St Patrick’s day parade on Tuesday…like I said…busy.

Joe

 

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3 comments

  • sedsinkc

    Thankfully, cyclone Pam is weakening and will not make a direct impact on northern New Zealand. As for KC, if it gets to 80 degrees officially on Monday it will be the seventh consecutive March in which it has reached 80 degrees in Kansas City, and 8 of the past 10 Marches (2006-2015). However, in the prior 10 years before 2006, it only reached 80 once in March!

    • Joe Lauria

      Thx Seds…we’re really in a low drama phase of the weather around here…I really can’t cobble together any decent thoughts to write an interesting weather blog…and since that fleeting rain chance on WED is even more fleeting on today’s data…not sure how much writing I can do for the next few days. JL

      • sedsinkc

        Yeah, been pretty quiet in these parts. We know eventually that will change, it’s just a question of when. Boston’s getting snow this late PM, will it be enough for them to set a new seasonal snowfall record? Could be very close.