Joe’s Weather Blog: Maybe…Hopefully A Little Rain (TUE-3/17)

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Had a blast today with the annual St Patrick’s Day parade in KC. 10’s of thousands of people lined the streets to watch the festivities…FOX 4 televised this live and was well represented out there with a variety of folks who you know and love…we even ran into Slugger who rode along with us as well!

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows near 32°

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds with some showers or light rain possible tomorrow afternoon evening. Temperatures tomorrow may max out around lunch or so in the mid 40s…then drop should the rain move into the area. How much rain we get is still a question mark because there will be a lot of dry air initially for the rain to overcome. Also it’s conceivable that temperatures could be near 40° in the late PM hours should the rain be heavy enough.

Thursday: Variable clouds and chilly with highs only in the 40s to near 50° depending on the extent of the cloud cover.

Discussion:

Well after a record breaking high yesterday of 83° at KCI and 85° in St Joe as well as numerous other records for the date and also for the month of March in the Plains and northern Plains..a strong front moved through overnight and ushered in much colder weather (but really just seasonable) into the Plains states…check out the 24 hour temperature change from yesterday at 3PM to today at 3PM. Click on the image below to make the graphics larger.

CaptureCapture

 

Pretty impressive front but again really just a return back to average or so through most areas..

My attention this afternoon is on a broad and unorganized storm system across the southern part of the country.

 

I think you can see it down there. I talked about this system on Sunday and there are still questions about how things will play out tomorrow. The EURO model has been pretty consistent in bringing a chunk of the moisture into the KC area tomorrow. The NAM and GFS have both now caught on as well. So know the question is more of how much or how little do we get from this.

There aren’t a lot of things working in favor of heavy totals from this system (over 1/2″) which is a good time to remind you of a graphic I showed this past Saturday on the news,

Now the day count is up to 159 days…that’s more than 5 months and then some.

There is rain breaking out in TX right now…

 

and the NAM model handles the moisture like this….

 

It brings rain into the area tomorrow late AM into the afternoon from the south to the north…although the farther north you get the less rain (if any) there is.

The hi-res NAM has the rain on the doorstep by 10 AM tomorrow…

hires_ref_kc_22

it then has the rain smack on the I-70 corridor at 1PM…

hires_ref_kc_25

What’s interesting to me is that the temperatures max out around 45° or so then would be dropping as the rain falls into the initially dry air at the surface cooling things down. Check out the forecasted temperatures at 1PM tomorrow…notice the 40-45° air spreading northwards from SE KS…

hires_t2m_kc_25

The problem with this playing out though is the storm itself is so far to the south of the area…that it’s tough to see how the model cranks out all this liquid from the storm.

hires_t_precip_kc_20

Those are some pretty beefy 1/2″-1″ totals in Miami and Cass counties…and I think they are overblown.

The GFS model is sort of on board as well with some of the heavier totals…

gfs_tprecip_kc_12

Those totals run in the 1/3-1/2″+ range in the KC area with heavier totals towards the Lakes region.

I still feel that this is overblown somewhat.

I do expect some rain from KC southwards…less to none north of 36 highway in N MO…heavier totals south of 50 highway. Let’s go with under 1/4″ for KC proper at this point and hope that I’m being too conservative. There are still a variety of things that don’t quite fit here…

Weather is quiet and milder FRI>SAT again before we cool down again on Sunday to seasonable levels.

Grab an umbrella to be on the safe side for tomorrow…and have a heavier coat ready as well for the chillier temperatures. Oh and would I be shocked IF somebody out there had a couple of ice pellets on Wednesday…nope.

One other thing…a strong geomagnetic storm has been in progress today, the result of 2 CME ‘s (Coronol Mass Ejections) from the sun on Sunday. There is an outside chance that somebody out there away from the city lights MAY see some northern lights activity tonight. There is actually a model that’s used called the Ovation Model from the Space Weather Center. The map below is the latest forecast. Keep an eye on this graphic after 10PM or so tonight. Just because it doesn’t paint anything on top of the KC area DOES NOT mean that the Northern Lights can’t be seen away from the brighter city lights…if we get detections towards the I-80 corridor to our north…then it’s possible we could see something here…especially in N KS and N MO.

 

IF we don’t see anything here…and odds favor we WON’T…then you can go to this site and watch some of the activity live starting after 5PM tonight. It’s from Iceland…where the Northern Lights are almost always on display given clear skies and the right conditions of course.

Joe

 

 

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