Joe’s Weather Blog: Great weekend then storm chances (SAT-3/21)
The 1st full day of spring in KC is a nice one as temperatures are warming up nicely and we should be near 70° by the time the day is done..even warmer I think tomorrow.
Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the mid 40s
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid 70s
Monday: Increasing clouds…with a 20% chance of rain. Temperatures should be in the 60s.
A rather pleasant afternoon out there today as there is quite a bit of sunshine from KC northwards and quite a bit of cirrus clouds south of the KC area…we can see those clouds looking southwards.
That is quite the wet storm in Texas…where it’s been raining pretty good lately.
Check out how much rain has fallen over the past 14 days through 7AM this morning…click on that graphic to make it larger…there are some 6-8″ totals down there…obviously not a surprise that most of the southern half of TX is under a Flash Flood Warning today
That system will move through the southern part of the country and effect the SE part of the country early next week.
Meanwhile for us in the KC area…several things bear watching and all have been written about over the past several days…
1) Cold front #1 that will be moving into the region Monday. This front will then stall to our south and then slowly retreat northwards as a warm front Tuesday. The models are starting to get a bit more bullish on the bonus rain chances on Monday that will need to be watched. I’m not sold on this at this point…but I’m sold on a lot of cloud cover on Monday, especially in the later AM into PM hours. The front is a relatively weak one…so I think we should still make it into the 60s.
2) Then heading towards MON night strong winds just above the surface (we refer to this as the low-level jetstream really start to crank up. Take a look at this image via NEXLAB showing the strong winds (in knots) at about 5000′ or so…
As those winds run over a surface front which should be located on the south side of the KC area…lift will occur. This lift should yield some rapid rain and thunderstorm development overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Tough right now to say who gets the biggest storms, but there will be a trend towards heavy rain potential and also at least some hail potential overnight Monday. The better chances of this occurring are from KC northwards, and the potential of some severe criteria hail is especially prevalent north of KC at this point. A lot of that will be determined by the position of the surface front…and that will be worked on more on Monday. Where the storms form later Monday night will go a long ways in determining what happens Tuesday. Should the storms form much farther south of KC…then our hail potential goes up and also the potential that we’re on the cooler side of the front on Tuesday. The opposite holds true as well…IF those MON night storms are farther north…let’s say between I-70 and US 36…then we have a better chance of being milder on Tuesday.
3) Then on Tuesday the warm air should overtake the area as the retreating cold front (now a warm front) moves towards the north of KC…this will place us in a warmer and somewhat more humid air mass for Tuesday…dewpoints should be well into the 50s at least. The amount of cloud cover on Tuesday will determine the highs. There is potential for us to be in the 50s (too many clouds) or 70s (enough sunshine). As I mentioned yesterday…should there be too many storms/rain in the region through the AM TUE…then the warm front will get stuck to our south…keeping us in the cooler/moist air. The new EURO shows this potential with temperatures forecast to be in the 50s from I-70 northwards in KC while the south side of the metro is closer to 70°.
4) Tuesday afternoon: A cold front #2 will be moving through KS and entering the area later in the day. This will be watched for the potential for additional storm development but there are still MANY questions regarding how much instability will be realized at the surface with clouds keeping heating potentially in check + where the surface features decide to align. Some indications are that the better chances of re-firing storms may be towards the south east of the KC metro…again too early to have confidence in that outcome.
5) Still expect some chillier air later in the week.
That’s it…more coming tomorrow!