Joe’s Weather Blog: Spring lurches back…but first…(FRI-3/27)

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Good afternoon…temperatures today, as expected, are really struggling. Readings at 2PM are only in the 40-45° range which is about 10° below average for the area. There was some rain overnight and some snow is S MO…and we’ll try again tonight to stir up the weather pot just a bit.

Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds and chilly with lows dropping into the lower 30s. Rain chances increase after 9PM or so…and it’s possible depending on where this next system tracks that some cold see a switchover to snow. Higher probabilities are on the MO side east of KC…something to watch though in case there is a westwards shift. Also it’s not out of the question there could be a coating of snow somewhere out there…again higher chances from Chillicothe down 65 highway at this point into central MO.

Tomorrow: Precip cuts off in the AM rather quickly then decreasing clouds and cool again. The average high for late March is near 60° and again tomorrow we’ll be about 10° below average.

Sunday: Finally a spring lurch again with decreasing AM clouds (chance of a few showers) then sunny in the PM and highs warming well into the 60s.

Discussion:

Well at least we don’t have to worry about severe weather for awhile. Although some tonight may concern themselves with the potential for a dose of snow. The wave that I’m watching is across the N Plains as I type this and is moving towards the SE. It’s that clump of clouds up there showing up on the afternoon water vapor images. Here are the latest images from Rutgers University.

 

The higher clouds will be moving in later today through the evening…then the clouds will get lower and lower and eventually the radar will start to become more active. Since some of you will be following this overnight…I’ll post the radar from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

 

Some of our short term models (called the RAP and the HRRR) are showing the precip trying to sort of split around the state line…with rain to the west and snow to the east overnight. I’m not sure at this point I’m buying into all that precisely. We’ll just have to watch radar later this evening as the activity is moving through the Omaha area to see if it’s more east or west.

The temperatures later this evening should be a few degrees cooler than last night when the rain moved into the area…so the atmosphere is close to wanting it to snow near the State Line and eastwards. To the west the air aloft is a bit milder so rain would be the main thing to happen west of the KC metro.

Another brief opportunity for showers will develop on Sunday morning as another wave moves through. This wave will signal a warmer weather transition into the middle of next week. As a matter of fact assuming everything moves along…Sunday afternoon looks rather pleasant in the region.

MON>WED of next week look real nice with temperatures mostly in the 70s it appears. Some sort of cold front will move in either later WED or THU it appears and that should usher in chillier weather heading towards next weekend.

By the way…Boston will be having more snow this weekend…this will be the 10th straight weekend with snow for them! The are up to 110.3″ of snow since the fall season began, which is a building record for the most snow ever there. Via WeatherBell here is a look at what the NWS thinks up there…

ndfd_snow_neng_9

Not a lot…but just a reminder of the crummy winter that was I guess.

That’s it for today…I may try and get a blog dome tomorrow…if not…certainly on Sunday afternoon. Have a great weekend!

Joe

 

 

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