Joe’s Weather Blog: Storms Are Likely (TUE-3/31)

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On this the last day of the month…it is just beautiful out there with light NE winds and temperatures approaching 70° as I type this. The month will go down as milder than average by over 2° and also drier than average by about 1.5″.

Forecast:

Today: Nothing more to say…perfect with highs well into the 70s.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in 40s

Tomorrow: Fair skies but more clouds in the PM. You may start to notice the higher dewpoints coming in as well. You will also notice more wind tomorrow than the past couple of days…south winds will be gusting to 20-30 MPH. Highs near 80°.

Discussion:

Everything is still coming together for what was outlined over the weekend with regards to the thunderstorm chances later tomorrow night into Thursday early AM.

Our next cold front will be moving through THU AM…and on the assumption the storms barrel through the region, we should see at least some rain (1/4-3/4″) as an average with some areas in NW MO/N MO getting 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain. Severe weather risks still look rather minimal in the KC area…although in NW MO and NE KS there is a chance of some hail and winds with the storms triggering off a severe t/storm warning or two up there.

Here is the set-up tomorrow evening at 7PM…all the main features are still well west of the KC area…our surface moisture in increasing thanks to prolonged gulf flow compliments of south winds.

 

CENTRAL_ETA_SFC_SLPTMPDPTWINDSLI_36HR

 

The front to the west of the region will trigger storms, potentially some severe storms, out to the west of KC into NE and N KS…those storms will quickly morph into a line of thunderstorms and move towards the ENE. Eventually making it to us, and also triggering off additional storms ahead of the main line.

The 11AM surface map shows the better dewpoints well south of the metro…into the southern part of the country…the dewpoints are in green and the better moisture is represented by dewpoints 55°+.

 

So it’s there across the eastern parts of OK and W AR into TX…

Here is the hi-res NAM model showing the evolution of the storms tomorrow evening/Thursday AM. The forecast radar images are every 3 hours starting at 10PM Wednesday night.

hires_ref_kc_40

hires_ref_kc_43hires_ref_kc_46hires_ref_kc_49

 

There is a wild card in this…and that is should the storms be weaker and the push of the front not as significant…and IF the front is dangling nearby on Thursday we could see redevelopment in the PM hours OR as a wave in the flow moves through the Plains later THU the front could retreat far enough north that storms or some rain could reform closer to the I-70 corridor…the NAM model does not do this but the GFS model model is trying to do this…something to watch into FRI AM…

Friday is poised to be a chilly day in the area with highs near 50°.

Better this weekend and then windier and mild weather early next week. The specifics for next Monday (Royals) are still not totally clear, but guidance since the weekend has been consistent in developing a milder south flow…so at this point it looks MUCH milder than last years Opening Day. The winds though may be gusty and we could have a lot of low clouds in the region (maybe some patches of light and fast moving showers ). Despite this…temperatures have a good chance to be in the 70s for the game. Again this is early to nail down,

Have a great Tuesday!

Joe

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