Joe’s Weather Blog: Weather Settles Briefly

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Good afternoon…the thunderstorms that are on the MO side will be out of the viewing area in a matter of minutes, perhaps by the time this blog is posted for reading. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the far eastern part of the viewing area into central MO until 8PM. The higher threat of tornadic storms are across NE MO and E IA into IL this afternoon.

Forecast:

This afternoon: Dropping temperatures with blustery winds from the west at 30 MPH. Temperatures maxed out at 77° @ KCI and 80° Downtown and have dropped 20° through 2PM. Gray skies and perhaps some mist could develop as well into the evening.

Tonight: Gray and dreary early then some clearing later. Blustery winds will start to die down. Colder too with lows in the mid 30s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Nice day with a good temperature recovery and highs up into the mid 60s.

Discussion:

Well this was a pretty impressive cold front that swept through the area at lunchtime. Temperatures maxed out well  above average and are dropping this afternoon with strong west winds blowing through. The 2PM surface map is telling with a strong circulation of low pressure in NC MO and a cold front sparking a thin line of convection that will grow as it moves farther off towards the east and into more instability.

 

Capture

Here are the temperatures for the 2PM hour…they are in RED.

 

Notice the snow in NE and the colder weather…30s there. That’s the colder weather funneling our way today and tonight. It will then quickly wrap away from the area as the surface storm pulls away tomorrow.

Let’s recap yesterday…

 

Capture

There were 8 tornado reports on the KS side…bringing the total for the season to 14…hey KS you’re #1.

it’s something though that you don’t want to be #1 about. These are the reports of tornadoes…not necessarily the actual number of tornadoes. Sometimes there are multiple reports of the same tornado from different spotters etc. So that 14 number will come down a bit. For MO there have been 8 reports which is actually tied for 2nd place with about 6-7 other states. The overall count though is well below average so far.

For the KC area from noon yesterday through 2:30 today…here are the reports received…thankfully the reports were confined to only a few storms.

Capture

 

Some are wondering about why the forecast was “blown”. In other words I think people expected more severe weather than what really occurred. In honesty I thought there would be a bit more, but readers of the blog and followers on twitter knew that I was wondering about things yesterday because…

My feeling is that the storms, which created the severe weather earlier yesterday afternoon helped to “mess up” the environment. That plus the cap which was hanging around helping to cut the updrafts down if they tried to get going in the evening translated into fewer severe storms.

The parameters were certainly there…so the concern was there. Should there be storms…ingredients were in place for some nasty cells.

I also thought last night about the winter. There were several occasions where we were fighting a degree or two of above freezing air just above the surface somewhere…keeping up from getting snow and instead dealing with rain…or something. it seemed to happen a couple of times over the winter.

Then there is this…

Interesting coincidence.

Meanwhile for those who want the rain…another chance develops later Saturday night into Sunday…then again Tuesday…so we’re not done with the rain chances.

That’s it for now…as expected they’re dropping some of the counties under that watch as I finish the blog.

Joe

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