Joe’s Weather Blog: Dodging severe weather but drying out (FRI-4/10)

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Good afternoon…a beautiful day in the region with bright sunshine and after a chilly start, milder weather moving into the region as I type this. Skies are blue and will stay that way for the rest of the day. Overall the weekend will be split between nice weather on Saturday and dicey weather (but probably not a rainout) on Sunday.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows into the 30s

Tomorrow: Sunny and mild with highs near 70°

Tomorrow night: Increasing clouds with lows in the 40s

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this point not expecting any severe weather. Highs should be in the 60s but there is some upside if we’re drier or the rain is more spotty.

Discussion:

The big story today are the devastating tornadoes across N IL yesterday. as I mentioned numerous times this week, even in “quiet” severe weather seasons there are usually devastating tornadoes. The NWS will be surveying the damage today up there, and they will find at least EF3 damage and potentially higher.

Some of the videos do have some salty language but are impressive to see.

The NWS in Chicago has issued a preliminary statement regarding the severe weather from yesterday. It shows the various tracks of the cells and will be the page that will be updated as the new information comes in.

Meanwhile around here…the storm really didn’t do a lot overall for adding to the slowly increasing rainfall deficits. There is really nothing impressive heading this way over the next 7 days or so. The system and process on Sunday isn’t necessarily one that is a widespread type thing…there is some potential for areas to get over 1″ of rain fall but whether or not it’s the KC area or N MO…remains to be seen. IF that doesn’t pan out nicely for rain…it will be somewhat concerning heading through the late month timeframe.

April on average yields 3.73″ of rain…right now we’re around 3/4″ or so. again you can get big beefy rain totals from thunderstorms…so let’s be a little patient for the big picture to play out. we’re technically teetering into the “abnormally dry” status of the drought report with drought conditions slowly expanding through SE KS.

Capture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The latest hi-res NAM model shows some nice potential…again though limited coverage. This is via Penn state…

 

 

Let’s see how things pan out…quieter weather likely again next week.

I’m not sure I’ll get to a blog tomorrow…or IF I do it might be tomorrow evening. Have a great weekend!

Joe

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