Joe’s Weather Blog: Weekend “Iffiness” (FRI-4/17)

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Good afternoon…lots of clouds in the region today with temperatures well into the 70s as I type this blog out for you. Overall the rain threat increases through the weekend so enjoy the dry times while you can.

Forecast:

Tonight: Not a lot is going to happen. There may be a few stray showers out there but overall the weather should be dry into early Saturday. Temperatures tonight will be near 60°

Tomorrow: Off/on rain into the afternoon. Again just an “iffy” day out there with temperatures in the 60s. For areas that don’t see rain for awhile, you may be in the 70s…for areas that are plagued more by rain…perhaps only 65°. Tough to plan to do stuff outside although there still appears to be drier trends into the evening and overnight Saturday.

Sunday: Again off/on rain with temperatures in the 60s. By the time the weekend is done…some areas may have close to 2″ of rain.

Discussion:

Thought we’d start today’s blog by looking at our now familiar upper level storm that will gradually fill (weaken) into the weekend as it passes through the KC area on Sunday.

The water vapor loop clearly shows the spinning storm…via Rutgers University

 

It’s separated from the main jetstream up across Canada. As we go up to about 30,000 feet or so…you can see the jet blowing from the west to the east in Canada…meanwhile the storm in Colorado has nothing to shove it along…it’s become separated from the main flow, if you will.

 

So it’s just sitting there…waiting for something to move it along…

That something will be another wave in the atmosphere that will push into the western Canada tonight then dip far enough south on Sunday that the now weakening upper level storm in CO will start to squirt eastwards as it falls apart. actually what’s left of it will merge into this wave coming into western Canada today…and will form a new upper level storm in the upper Midwest early next week.

It’s been interesting to watch the snow fall in CO with this system. There has been a bunch of heavy wet snow in the mountains out there..but it’s really not unusual to see big April snows out there.

As a matter of fact there are a bunch of cities that see they’re biggest snows of the season during the month of April

So with this process happening and with small waves being ejected out of the main storm, waves of rain chances move through the Plains region. One of them fell apart in eastern KS today. Storms got close to KC later this morning then petered out as then got towards the state line. Plus with the circulation around the Colorado storm, the waves of rain are moving from the south to the north. As the storm in CO moves into the Plains tomorrow, what activity that develops south of KC or SW of KC will have an easier time coming into the KC area.

The rainfall totals though may be rather haphazard as an average. Witness what happened yesterday in KS from the KS mesonet. Click on the graphic to make it larger.

150417-heavy-needed-rains

Hence the reason why we have off/on rain in the forecast for the weekend. I’d post some model graphics for you…but I have no faith that they’ll be representative of what’s going to happen in terms of timing. I still feel that there may be some drier times over the weekend, especially SAT night and then again later Sunday into Sunday night.

So with all that said…I’ll post a short term model…the HRRR model to show what will happen over the next 15 hours or so. This model will auto update for you until my next weather blog tomorrow afternoon.

 

It’s be no means a perfect solution however…and really tends to overdue this future radar product…for example as I write this up…it’s showing all sorts of rain in the region this afternoon…that’s not going to happen…isolated stuff maybe…but not widespread

We do have enough heat out there and are uncapped, so there could be some isolated activity out there this afternoon. There is a small circulation (remnant of a wave from this morning) that is waffling around NE KS. This too may spark some isolated storms later today. If things work out we should be stabilizing this evening for the game.

Overnight tonight I expect to see additional storms form in KS…those will be moving NNEwards. The risk of severe weather is well west of here overnight and into tomorrow. the following graphic shows the current watches (if any). Blue are Severe Thunderstorm Watches and Red are Tornado Watches

 

Then on Sunday the risk may be somewhat closer to KC but the chances of any severe weather in KC still don’t look overly great in my opinion. The main focus may be farther towards the MO bootheel area. Should there a slowdown in the CO storm…then maybe things could change on Sunday or IF the wave that’s going to be responsible for moving this storm along slows down as well…then things could change a bit…

Next week will be marked by cooler than average temperatures. There is some question about the overnight lows and the potential for some frost. As I’ve mentioned numerous times…frost during mid-late April is NOT unusual. With that said…IF we can manage to have clear skies (which may be problematic) we could see a morning or two with lows in the 35-40° range.

That’s about it for today…I’ll get an update out tomorrow afternoon for you…probably before 2PM or so.

Michelle has the evening shift tonight so check in with her to see how the rain chances over the weekend play out.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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