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Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain Yes…but LOTS of dry time too! (WED-5/6)

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As Mike Thompson puts the finishing to touches on School Day At The K which continues to be the biggest live weather show in the entire world, and all right here in KC, I’ll be handling the weather duties tonight at 5//6/9/10. The question is will I be showing a lot of radar of rain moving through parts of the area…or will be be talking about the various set-ups when rain will move through parts of the area. Regardless there will be a lot of talk about rain and timing concerns because essentially from now through Sunday the chance of rain is with us…but with that said it’s going to be dry more often than it will be raining and while you may have some plans altered or changed, it’s tough to say when exactly that could occur. Frustrating for you and frustrating for us trying to figure out that stuff.

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with scattered showers and storms in the area. It’s just one of those days where the radar in the discussion part of the blog will be your guide. The rain will be moving from the S>N and from the SSE>NNW around a larger and broader storm moving through the western Plains states. Highs should be in the 70s today.

Tonight: Severe storms are expected later today/tonight out in the Plains states towards the west of the KC region…and some of those may wander towards us (in a weakened state) overnight or tomorrow early AM. Lows near 60°

Tomorrow: There may be brief shower activity around in the early AM…overall a mostly dry day with another chance of some storms later in the afternoon. Highs near 80°. At this point we’re expecting dry conditions for School Day but I suggest getting an updated forecast before you get in the car/bus in case you need some rain gear or the storm chances look better in the afternoon hours.

Discussion:

Let radar be your friend over the next 5 days…that is my suggestion because the timing of the rain will be tough to do with any confidence. Storm chances will be with us…and slowly the severe weather chances will be on the increase here but for other areas of the Plains severe weather will be a bigger problem.

 

On a broader scale…you can see everything slowly spinning around an upper level storm system across the western Plains.

 

This upper level storm will be moving towards the NNE into the upper Midwest over the next 24 hours.

With the current set-up the higher risk of severe weather, including perhaps some tornadoes will be out to the west of KC today.

 

On a broader sense the 1st upper level storm is moving NNE because another upper level storm is dropping through the western part of the country. This will roughly follow the same track of it’s predecessor and with that set-up again we’ll quickly be back in SW flow aloft ahead of that storm…and that means continued rain chances in the region for several days at a time. With that said timing any disturbance from today outwards  is not really possible…so it’s just a matter of watching the radar and the water vapor satellite loop and looking for small curls in the moisture.

 

By the way…also notice the system off the SE part of the country. That may become the 1st tropical system of the season (Ana). Storms in May are rare although there were 2 in 2012 and 1 in 2009. Overall there have been 20 named storms and 4 hurricanes in the month of May going back to 1851. Obviously there could’ve been a lot more than that, because we didn’t have satellite data for the Oceans till the late 60s and early 70s.

Meanwhile let’s pay attention to the weather on Sunday (Mother’s Day). The potential of some severe weather will be there. One thing that is happening between now and then…the atmosphere (while not totally unfavorable for severe weather here) isn’t exactly primed for it either. Obviously should we get enough heating we could see some scattered wind/hail reports in the region as is typical for May in the KC area…but something more organized is possible on Sunday it appears. With that said there will be numerous changes in this potential as well.

So with all that said…as I mentioned at the top of the blog…there will be more dry hours (many more) compared to wet hours over the next 5+ days. It’s not worth cancelling any outdoor plans at this point in time. Just watch radar, have a plan B ready and enjoy the warmer temperatures. We should cool off for a few days early next week.

Joe

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