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Joe’s Weather Blog: Waiting On The Rain (SAT-5/23)

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Good afternoon…we’re salvaging the 1st part of the holiday weekend…although I’m starting to see some shower activity break out south of the metro as of this writing (1PM). So some may dodge some drops this afternoon. Overall my forecast thoughts from this morning continue to play out nicely. It’s just a matter of when and how much rain we get over the next 36 hours or so.

Forecast:

This afternoon: Cloudy skies with scattered showers possible. Hit or miss type stuff it appears. Highs 65-70°

Tonight: Rain increases in coverage and intensity. Lows drop to near 60°

Tomorrow: Off and on rain (some heavy). Highs again in the 60s. By later tomorrow night the potential is certainly there for 1-4+” to fall in the area. NOT all will get at least 2″ and many will not see 4″…but the potential is certainly there and that’s why there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the region.

Monday: Mixed clouds/sun and seasonable with highs in the 70s.

Discussion:

Did you know that out of the 23 days this month…we’ve had only 3 days without at least a trace of rain. Pretty amazing and it’s why mushrooms are growing like weeks on some area lawns. Wet has been the weather word in KC lately and it will continue for another few days.

Let’s start out with the latest watches and warnings…the dark green are Flood/Flash Flood watches and the light green are the warnings. This map will update constantly as new warnings are issued. Should any Flash Flood Warnings be issued…they will be in a darker red color.

 

Radar as of 1PM show scattered showers developing towards the south of KC. This radar will update automatically.

 

While the dry weather this morning was an OK start to the weekend…it will be a bit dicier this afternoon with scattered showers in the region. Still not terrible though.

Our focus all along has been through tonight and tomorrow. The regional radar (auto updates for you) shows a bigger swath of moderate rain towards central KS…moving towards the NE.

 

That is the area of rain that I’m concerned about for the mid evening and overnight hours…it seems like it wants to move into the area sometime after 7-8PM or so…so bring the rain gear tot he ballpark. I’m pretty sure they’ll start the game…I can’t guarantee they’ll finish the game though…especially IF the game starts running a bit long.

Here is the HRRR short term model that will also auto-update for you as new runs are ingested.

As I mentioned yesterday…the atmosphere is in the process of loading up with moisture…especially through the atmospheric column. This thick moisture plus areas of lift coming from waves moving through the flow are perfect ingredients to spark off areas of rain…

These waves, which tomorrow will be moving from TX through the southern Plains towards the state line area…will be numerous and frequent.  As a matter of fact look at the extent of the Flood Watches in effect for this part of the country.

 

Capture

 

What’s happened in the southern part of the country over the last 6 weeks is pretty amazing…from terrible water rationing drought to flooding rainfall erasing the drought.

Look at what all this rain has done at Lake Texoma…which is north of the DFW area…amazing.

Meanwhile back home…the GFS model is cranking out 6-9″ of rain over the next 10 days in KC…and in la la land over 16 days it has the area seeing more than 12″ of rain.

gfs_tprecip_kc_41

With all that said…there are still questions concerning who will see the heaviest rainfall…various models have the heaviest axis ranging from near the state line … or even about 50+ miles west of the state line. Here is the NAM model…

Capture

and the GFS model..

gfs_tprecip_kc_15

The latest EURO model has the heaviest axis from Maryville, MO to Topeka to Emporia (5+”) while KC gets 1-4″…regardless no matter where you live odds favor at least 1″ of rain from this over the next couple of days.

Monday appears to be a bit more reasonable…although the storm chances are there at night into early Tuesday morning and then again later Tuesday in the heat of the afternoon.

It just keeps on coming.

 

I’m just saying…

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Major flooding occurring now upstream from Lake Texoma along the Red River, which is likely to continue for a few days. Lake Texoma, which is a huge lake for those unfamiliar with it, has risen about 5 feet in the past five days and is about 5.7 feet below its record crest. I wonder what the current rate of discharge from the dam is, and whether they can increase it much given the flooding already occurring downstream as well.