Joe’s Weather Blog: Better Days…Wetter Nights? (MON-5/25)

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Good afternoon…finally more than a few consecutive hours of dry time in the KC area…of course this was after some morning rain moved through and fell apart on the MO side…but whatever.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies initially but there is a chance of t/storms moving in from the west of the area. Timing on that would probably be after 10PM or so into the wee hours of the morning. Lows in the 60s. For areas SE of the metro you could see some locally heavy rainfall depending on the path that a disturbance takes coming out of TX  overnight. Something to watch for especially the closer one gets tot he Lakes region down there.

Tomorrow: Rain chances fade towards sunrise…then sort of like today. Mixed clouds/sun with highs around 80°. Once again there could be scattered storms later in the day…but again overnight the chances go up a bit more into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday: Variable clouds and muggy with highs near 80°

Discussion:

Thought I’d start the blog off with this video…from earlier this morning I believe of a waterspout off the beach at Ft Lauderdale. Notice how the beach-goers are watching it…then notice how it lifts a few of the beach umbrellas…then notice how it lifts a children’s bouncy toy. Unfortunately children were inside of it playing. There are a reported 4 injured including 1 critically. Language is not for the young ones

Scary.

Speaking of which…after I got home last night I was watching via twitter, a massive tornado SW of Dodge City. It was being illuminated by the lightning and this thing was big. Thankfully it missed the city of Ensign (pronounced En-sign I believe) pop 187.

What was fascinating was that as this huge tornado was on the ground…to the west a raging line of storms was approaching. That supercell got absorbed into the raging line. Then may have helped create another tornado south of Dodge City about 30 min later…just an interesting night watching radar.

Meanwhile around these parts…the rain has officially become a pain for many. A lot of folks are getting tire of it for the time being…and overall it’s tough to pick a day when there isn’t at least a chance of seeing additional rainfall. Odds are we’re going to be in this for awhile longer and that would include the upcoming weekend. Look at all the days with rain in KC of a trace or more. Today is the 22nd day!

Capture

With that said…I did some checking and it appears that today ties May 1935 with the most days with at least a trace of rainfall this month. Trace is the operable word here. I think the graphic below shows .01″ or more. In that regard we’re now tied at #5 (inc. today)

Capture

Odds are we’ll break that record sometime over the next week. Amazing stuff!

Speaking of the rain…here are a couple of graphics that I showed on the noon show today…the 1st one shows the rain totals this month…for all the other cities aside from KC…it was updated at 1AM…for KC it’s current through 1PM today.

 

Capture1

Now let’s look at 2015 overall…for precipitation (melted snow + rain)

Capture2

Up to 15″ here in KC. Notice that the rainfall is half as much in Concordia, KS but almost doubled in Oklahoma City. We’re actually about 2.5″ above average for the year, which in the big scheme of things really isn’t a lot for KC through late May.

Oklahoma City though is now 15+” above average for the year…that is impressive and then some.

As far as the almost daily chances of rain goes…that continues…but it doesn’t quite appear to be as widespread as what happened over the past weekend…so there’s that.

At this point…if things work out…it appears WED/THU may have a lessor chance of rain…while FRI the chances are on the uptick again. The weekend is a whole separate ballgame as the GFS has a cut-off low meandering in KS giving the region copious opportunities for locally heavy rain at times…the EURO model says no to that potential. The Canadian model seems more like the GFS except it has whatever upper system actually on top of KC…the odds of that happening are not particularly high in my opinion.

With that said the weekend is a wild card in the forecast…it may be very wet…or not. Let’s hope for the “not” part of this. Although my suspicion is that the GFS may be onto  something here and that bothers me. Although IF the GFS model is correct…there may not be a lot of wind shear aloft supporting severe weather although there would still be a lot of moisture through the atmosphere supporting the potential of locally heavy downpours.

We’ll write more about that potential later in the week. Tomorrow is a blog day off for me…and a heads up…odds are not much blogging next week (weather permitting). I’ll finally be able to take a week off for the 1st time in awhile. Not going anywhere…but I need a break from these crazy weather weekends we’ve gone through this month.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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