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Joe’s Weather Blog: “Somewhat” drier + tons of humidity! (WED-6/17)

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Good morning…it’s been awhile right? good to be back in the saddle again as they say. I didn’t travel or anything. Just hung around KC and ate a little pizza, mowed some grass (more than some) and played a lot of golf. Overall it was nice to step away…Didn’t watch much aside from the Royals and a little hockey on TV. Nice to be 3.5 games in front in the divisiion though…and that’s with some rough going here the last 5 weeks or so!

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and rather similar to yesterday. Highs should be around 85° with localized areas getting a bit warmer. Humidity levels will be high again so not the most pleasant of days out there. The rain chances are minimal but some scattered activity is possible (30% chance).

Tonight: Isolated showers again possible in this tropical airmass…but there are really no strong forcing mechanisms to get more rain to fall. Lows near 70°

Tomorrow: Once again some scattered storms possible in the afternoon. The remnants of Bill will be moving through the I-44 corridor. Sometimes on the northern edge where the heating could get stronger (depending on the clouds) there are storms…there will be a weak quasi wind shift in the region later in the day and tomorrow night. It may be enough to spark some storms. Rain chance: 40%

Discussion:

A couple of things are apparent as I look a the data early this morning…1) Bill is going to bring a ton of rainfall to parts f the southern Plains and S MO as well. 2) The steam heat is going to return into the weekend and even into next week. Lots of 90s are coming I fear with the high humidity combo that we saw about a week ago. That is going to send the heat index values well over 100 in places down the road so prepare for that.

Bill came ashore yesterday and while the winds got up to 60 MPH just before landfall…the big story will be the rain from Bill. The potential of flooding rains are increasing towards the I-44 corridor. The worst should stay well south of KC…but IF you’re heading towards the Lakes of S MO please be aware that flooding will be an issue down there…and the lake levels will be getting even higher as well.

 

Already there are reports of 6-10″ rain totals in Polk and Dallas counties in SW MO.

Here is the doppler estimated storm totals from the NWS in Springfield. This product should auto-update.

 

Plenty more to come in an atmosphere swollen with moisture…the thing is…the core of Bill is still located in TX and you can very easily see it slowly moving towards the Dallas area this morning…

 

Its only slowly weakening in terms of it’s ability to generate rainfall because of the soupy conditions through the middle of the country. There is still a lot of moisture in the atmosphere for the storm to tap into over the next couple of days.

In a sense though…this remnant system will be the only thing that keeps the stifling heat away from KC for a it longer. Aloft an anti-cyclone or “heat wave generator”is going to be expanding from the SW part of the country into the Plains over the weekend…as it does so…temperatures are going to soar.

Here is a map showing the situation up around 18,000 feet…by later Sunday…as the heat wave generator is becoming a heat pump while moving eastwards…

heat

That anti cyclone, or ridge of high pressure aloft will create sinking air…that allows the late June sunshine to really bake things…and while there is a lot of green out there and a ton of moisture in the soil…it will still get well into the 90s with high dewpoints to boot. Overall some nasty heat is in the cards for a good part of the Midwest and southern Plains it appears with reduced rain chances in the big picture of things.

While the rain chances are reduced, there will be a few things to watch out for…especially later Sunday into Monday AM. As the HIGH builds in, along the periphery of it…small disturbances may move from the WNW>ESE. It’s not out of the question there could be thunderstorms before it builds in later Sunday or early Monday. Goodness knows there will be a lot of heat and humidity making the atmosphere unstable…so it’s something to watch for later in the weekend.  There is the potential for severe weather as well on Sunday…

Then MON>WED or THU should be very hot and humid. The ridge will migrate into the SE part of the country later next week into the following weekend…so the worst of the heat may have the edge taken off from it a bit in the KC area. We may also see the rain chances come back into focus later in the next work week as well.

That’s it for today…like I mentioned I’ve been away from work for awhile…and well it’s tome to look for the razor blade I guess… :)

See you on the evening newscasts!

Joe

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