Joe’s Weather Blog: KC heat advisory in effect Saturday (FRI-6/19)

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So I just found out my ash trees are infected by the ash borer…lovely. Need to decide whether to treat them forever, slowly watch them die in the next 3 years or so or cut them down…what should I do?

Forecast:

Tonight: Dry and pleasant. Dewpoints really aren’t too oppressive today and tonight we should be rather comfortable as the winds slowly transition to the SE and S overnight into Saturday morning. Lows in the 65-70° range.

Tomorrow: Increasingly more humid and hotter. Highs should soar to 90-95°. Dewpoints will head into the 70s in the afternoon. Heat index values will pop to 100-105°+

Sunday: Scattered storms are possible depending on the evolution/progress of a weak cold front/wind shift line as it slowly pushes south from the northern Plains region. The chance at this point is 50%. Temperatures, assuming we have clouds int eh area, may not be as extreme as Saturday. The higher rain chances are in N MO it appears…but various outflows etc may bring those chances into the metro area during the day. Highs may be in the 80s with a lot of clouds…without those clouds though…90°+ is again doable.

Discussion:

A heat advisory is in effect for the KC metro area for Saturday afternoon from noon-9PM. The combination of heat and humidity will create nasty heat indices in the area on Saturday. Remember to stay hydrated and try to get you exercising done early or later in the day with the lower sun angle. There will be some decent SW winds of 15-30 MPH blowing to attempt to take the edge off of things just a little bit.

The 2PM surface map shows the remnants of Bill still holding together nicely in S MO. It has created a ton of rain down to the south over the last couple of days. More on that soon. Here is the 2PM surface map. We’re on the backside of the circulation of Bill and as a result a more northerly flow of air…and now northeasterly flow has allowed the dewpoints to come down to tolerable levels…

sfc

In the above map the dewpoints are in green…notice the dewpoints towards central KS/OK/TX are higher than here…with the winds switching towards the SW tomorrow the thicker air will come back fast…and that’s what is going to happen tomorrow.

Here is the satellite picture showing the circulation…still impressive!

 

Bill will effect the OH Valley tomorrow then the northeastern part of the country on Sunday…flooding rain is the main issue with Bill.

The last 7 days of rainfall have been impressive…and has created additional flooding in SW MO over the last couple of days. Table Rock Lake went up 18″ in the last 12 hours alone. The map below shows the rainfall over the last 7 days according to doppler estimates.

Capture

Record flooding is occurring along the James River in Springfield, MO

 

The previous record crest was July 1st of 1999.

Meanwhile along I-35 into southern OK…

There are concerns about how much higher the river there will go…it’s heading towards a record crest this afternoon…

Look at these 60 day rainfall totals down there…

 

After the storm chance on Sunday…the focus from MON>THU of next week will be the heat and the humidity…with a caveat.

We may see a repeated chance of storms across S IA and far N MO on MON>TUE in the heat. Those storms may be able to through out various outflow boundaries. Should that occur, depending on where the boundaries go…it’s not totally out of the question there could be additional storms trying to form. The cap will be stronger closer to the KC area…so that may prevent us from getting into the action…it’s something to watch during the course of the early part of next week.

The other story will be towards the end of next week…as the heat generator which will be in the Plains early next week will sort of split up…one part in the SE part of the country with another migrating towards the PAC NW. In the PAC NW…the potential for record heat is increasing…so much som that some model data suggests all-time record heat is possible out there next weekend.

For the KC area…we may see some relief in the heat and humidity towards next weekend…

That’s it for now…I’ll get another update out for you tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

 

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Joe, if it was me I would cut the ash trees down now. You’re just prolonging the inevitable if you don’t cut them down. Dying/dead trees in someone’s yard are an eyesore to the neighborhood. I know, because I have a neighbor with two long-dead elm trees in her yard. You have to wonder how dangerous the chemicals to treat the infestation are. Bottom line, cut those suckers down. As for the rains to our south, those 60 day rain totals in southern Oklahoma are out of sight! Those 36 inch amounts are probably close to what that area normally receives in an entire year. Red River is cresting at record levels in Gainesville, which is where I-35 crosses.