Joe’s Weather Blog: Smokey skies and rain

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Good morning…once again we’re seeing lots of smoke out there this morning…and with some cirrus moving in during the afternoon…temperatures may not reach their potential. The smoke alone (rather thick for this area) could easily cut 1-5° off the forecasted highs.

Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds with storm chances going up overnight into Wednesday. Lows tonight may drop into the 60s assuming the rain comes through the area.

Tomorrow: Storms may be around during the 1st part of the day. The late afternoon and evening hours WED though are sort of tough to figure out…should there be a bigger complex tonight that effects the whole area…we’ll be more stable tomorrow…should the complex effect only the MO side mostly…perhaps more NE of KC…then we could be set up for renewed convection in the later PM tomorrow. So really the later PM storm chance tomorrow depends a whole lot on what happens overnight tonight.

Thursday: Cooler with mixed sun/clouds. Temperatures may only be around 80° or so.

Discussion:

Once again smoke from Canadian wildfires is draped through the region. If you think the skies are murky here…its MUCH worse in the N part of the country and into Canada. I will say that this is some of the thicker smoke I’ve seen in the KC area over the last couple of days.

The rain situation is rather dicey…especially the timing and who gets the worst of the rain. There will be some bigger storms out there (maybe some severe weather, especially into the MO side)…how this directly effects KC proper though is somewhat as murky as the skies today. We’re expecting storms to develop in E NE later today into tonight. The flow aloft would then take those storms towards the SE. How well they organize and whether or not this is more of a Maryville>Chillicothe system…or a Falls city, NE to KC system is tough to say at this point.

Odds somewhat favor the worst to be farther E/NE of KC…but it’s not something to put into stone…considering the storms in question haven’t even formed yet. The atmosphere will again be swollen with moisture so obviously once again flooding rainfall is a concern with the situation overnight into tomorrow AM…the trick is who is most vulnerable to that scenario.

Another concern could be the potential of some severe storms with all this…and once again the specter of strong winds with the storms.

So the forecast overall is somewhat murky overnight into tomorrow morning. This is all tied to a weak disturbance coming down through SE MT this morning into the western Plains then forecasted to intensify as it approaches NW MO. Again the precise location of this will go a long ways in determining who gets the worst of the weather overnight…here or farther east?

The problem with this is what happens overnight and tomorrow AM…could play a large role into determining what happens later tomorrow afternoon as another wave or two drops SEwards through the Plains. Will we have sinking air after the overnight activity in place…will we heat up enough tomorrow or have a lot of residual cloud cover? There may be some sort of residual outflow boundary around the I-70 corridor from the storms overnight…complicating the temperature scenario and the future storm initiation locations for tomorrow late day. There is potential for some severe storms tomorrow late day/evening depending on the heating that can be achieved and the instability that can build up.

Unfortunately this is a 2 day period with a lot of uncertainty…and again it’s a perfect example of what we try and do…forecast things that don’t exist. The storms in question overnight…don’t exist right now. If something doesn’t exist now…then we try and figure out if it will exist overnight and where it will exist…then that plays a huge role in determining what happens later tomorrow…you can see my point right.

The gang will keep you updated this evening…once the storms start to come together and we get a better idea of where they’re going and how many there are…it will help the cause substantially.

Joe

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Farmgirl

    Do you have a timeline when the storms should begin firing up? Late evening, overnight, or early morning? And it is impressive that smoke can alter temperature by 5 degrees…that is very significant.