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Joe’s Weather Blog: Decent weekend then storms (FRI-7/3)

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Good afternoon and we wish you a safe holiday weekend. Mother Nature will mostly cooperate with the weather over the next several days, but if your weekend is longer, through Monday, then the potential of getting wet will be increasing dramatically early next week.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and pleasant with lows 60-65°. Light winds.

Tomorrow: Another nice day for Independence Day. Highs near 85°. Evening activities will be perfect it appears with temperatures around 75°. Humidity also will not be overly high for early July.

Sunday: We’ll have mixed clouds and sunshine. Dewpoints will be increasing as the day moves along so getting a bit more muggy in the afternoon, Overall though it should stay dry for most. There is a remote chance of something isolated forming but again most will be dry.

Monday: Storm chances increase, especially in the PM hours. Highs may be tempered by clouds, for now let’s go with highs between 85-90°. Some locally heavy rain is possible with the storms moving through the region.

Discussion:

Overall we’re going be in pretty good shape for the next few days…there are some things to watch for over the next 72 hours however including 1) some hotter trends (but nothing excessive) 2) storm chances 3) smokey skies return?

In June we had 7 days with highs 90° or above at KCI which is our long term average going back to the late 1880s. In July we average about 15 days with highs 90° or above. For the last couple of summers in June and July we didn’t get to those numbers however. How will this July go? So far we’ve started cool…but temperatures will be trending upwards over the weekend and potentially on Sunday we could make it to 90° at KCI and potentially Monday as well depending on the clouds that may filter out the sunshine.

Another aspect to watch over the weekend is a return to some smokey skies. There is plenty of smoke right now across the northern Plains states.

As a matter of fact the smoke is reducing visibility drastically in ND as I type this. Here is the latest surface map showing the smoke being reported.

 

The temperatures are in red, the dewpoints are in green and in between look for the sideways oo. Those are the reductions to visibility because of smoke in the air. Pretty widespread areas of 2-5 mile visibilities up there which is very thick smoke from the Canadian fires which are still burning.

In satellite pictures this afternoon I can see some thinner smoke areas moving across N MO…nothing like a few days ago. I wouldn’t be shocked if maybe some of that smoke drifts through our skies over the weekend. How think it will be for us remains to be seen.

Our next rain concern on a widespread basis should wait till MON PM. A cold front will be moving into the region from the northern part of the country. Here is the forecast weather map for Monday at 1PM with a cold front entering NW MO and dropping towards us.

sfc

Ahead of the front the atmosphere will be getting VERY soupy. When storms form with the front, and/or ahead of it…odds are they will be very efficient rain producers so once again the specter of flooding will be there early next week. Also there will be a chance of some severe storms in the form of gusty winds and perhaps some hail later Monday depending on the amount of instability we achieve.

The line of storms and the front will clear the area later Monday night and we should be in good shape again on Tuesday and Wednesday with more comfortable highs in the 80-85° range it appears and also pleasant dewpoints which means lower than average morning lows.

Have a great weekend and stay safe!

Joe

 

 

 

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