Joe’s Weather Blog: Front may straddle area today (MON-8/3)
Some strong thunderstorms continuously blasted parts of northern MO overnight. 50-60 + MPH winds were reported and hundreds lost power at various times because of tree damage to the NNE of the KC area. The storms had a tough time holding together once they got south of 36 highway however (mostly) and they also threw out various outflows that are complicating today’s forecast in addition to helping to lay out a cold front near the KC region this morning.
Today: Hot and humid once again. Storm chances start to increase in the PM hours. Not all will get the storms and the better chances may be connected to the location of a weak front that will be near the metro (or in the metro). Temperatures for today should, like yesterday, again be near 90°. Heat index values should be around 100° (possibly a but higher in downtown KC).
Tonight: Whatever storms that are out there will fade away. Temperatures drop to near 70° (cooler to the north)
Tomorrow: Variable clouds with storm chances coming back into the area but the better chances may not come back till tomorrow night into Wednesday. Highs tomorrow should be in the 85-90’ range.
Once again, as I’ve written about already…we are going to be influenced by a weak front that will get into the KC area today and then just sort of weaken. This is problematic because while dew points this morning are OK (in the 60s) thanks to some outflow from the N MO storms, they should gradually climb as the day moves along into the 70s again, especially from KC southwards.
It also appears that we should have quite a bit of sunshine out there as well today. That will allow the atmosphere to get nice and unstable during the afternoon hours. So you have a 1) front + 2) heat + 3) decent summer dew points. That seems like a recipe for storms to form. I do expect some. Still not convinced on how many and how widespread the activity will be, but from KC southwards I would be aware of the storm chances later today.
You also, like northern MO over the past couple of days, will have a set-up so that IF the storms can get strong enough, they easily can generate winds of 50+ MPH. So there is a chance of some severe weather. we can use the rain in some areas after the hot weather over the past week or so…certainly don’t want to be dealing with the wind however.
Here is the morning surface map, it’s somewhat a messy set-up because of this weak front combined with various outflow boundaries that are in the region as well.
That black dashed line int he Sedalia area is in fact one of the outflows that are in the area.
Outflows, in case you don’t know, are basically pockets of rain cooled air that have been created and pushed out from thunderstorms. They happen often and typically dissipate with the sunshine and the heat building back up as the day moves along. They’re important however because they can be areas that have a tendency to develop more convergence, and hence can lead to storms initiation.
So you have some of those in the region + this weak front that separates somewhat more comfortable air north of K today and the hot and muggy stuff that should be on top of the KC area and points southwards this afternoon.
We should be capped through early this afternoon in the Metro…however that cap will be very weak as the afternoon moves along, and should erode entirely this afternoon. As a result we should at least see some storms fire up. Again coverage and location remain to be seen but certainly from KC southwards it’s something to watch for IF the front is indeed in or near the KC metro area.
I will leave you this morning with two products. One is the NWS radar from Pleasant Hill so you an see the progress of the storms as they try to develop and the other will be one of our short range models called the HRRR. This model loves it’s convection and does have a tendency to go overboard with it and especially with the coverage of convection. The graphic is from IA State.
Here is the HRRR model via IA State.
Have a great Monday and don’t forget you can follow me on Twitter for additional information about what is going on with the weather.