Joe’s Weather Blog: 2 cold fronts + some rain (MON-8/17)

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Short blog today to update things since today is my day off…I’ll have fuller blogs tomorrow through Thursday since I’ll be at work doing the noon show those days. Overall no major changes needed to what I was forecasting over the weekend…the main thing is, as far as the rain chances go…yes there will be rain but I’m not promising complete coverage, nor am I promising enough rain for the grass in the KC area at least…hopefully it will work out…but the amounts look to be under 1″ mostly with some upside in some localized area.

Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and mild…scattered showers/storms possible but not for all at this point. Lows near 70°

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers/storms. Again perhaps not total coverage but hopefully we’ll get something out of this. The cold front won’t move in till Tuesday night. We may have lingering storms Tuesday night as well depending on the instability we can get Tuesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s with enough sunshine…if not…it will struggle to 80°.

Wednesday: Variable clouds and MUCH cooler with highs in the 70s. There may be a few sprinkles here and there but a mostly dry day is expected.

Discussion:

There are 2 cold fronts that I’m keeping an eye on…one has formed but as expected probably will not reach the KC area…the other will be developing tomorrow…and will push through the region tomorrow night and bring a significant punch of cool air with it that should linger into Thursday with the drier air lingering into Friday (lower dew points).

 

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It certainly is cooler up there…but that front is really struggling to move southwards…there isn’t much rain associated with it to push it southwards…so again the better chances remain across N MO and NE KS for the rest of the day.

 

Tomorrow however will be a different story…as a wave digs into the northern Plains and becomes a rather strong upper level storm by Wednesday in the upper Midwest. This will push a stronger front southwards and drive it through the KC area.

The question for tomorrow is whether or not we’ll have so much cloud cover and more numerous showers moving through during the day to reduce our instability so that when the front comes through the atmosphere isn’t that unstable promoting less vigorous storm development in the area tomorrow evening with the front itself. For those who want a better drink of water from the heavens above…you want more instability to get more convection, for the potential of heavier downpours. Less convection tomorrow evening will keep the rain totals lower for many.

Regardless…Wednesday is a cooler day (significant for August) and Thursday AM temperatures will drop into the 50s…it appears at this point a SW shifting wind will keep temperatures from bottoming out fully.

More over the next few days.

Joe

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