Joe’s Weather Blog: Fast moving chill ahead (TUE-8/18)

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Good afternoon…varied rain totals out there today so far with some areas <1/4″ and others well over 1″. Seems that JOCO and parts of JACO are above 1″ in some areas…still additional chances later today into this evening…after that we have to wait till the 2nd part of the weekend.

Forecast:

Tonight: A cold front will be moving through the region between 8PM-12AM. There could be additional storms later this afternoon/this evening associated with the front. Temperatures will be in the 70s early this evening and drop into the 50s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Variable clouds and cool…highs only around 70° or so. Some areas may get a few degrees warmer depending on the amount of sunshine. Breezy as well…but lighter winds in the afternoon.

Thursday: A Top 10 Weather Day for 2015. Light winds and mild but not overly warm air. Highs 80-85 with low dew points.

Discussion:

Interesting weather out there today as a disturbance generated by a thunderstorm cluster has moved through the KC area giving us the rain for the 1st part of the day today…things will settle down for a few hours this afternoon…but then the focus will shift towards north central KS where some new showers/storms are developing with the cold front that will change our weather tonight.

 

Temperatures this afternoon should pop to near 80° or so ahead of the front with some sunshine helping out. Here is a high resolution satellite image which will update every 1 minute…amazing…here is the loop of 1 minute updated satellite pictures…you can see some real neat features (load on a PC).

 

The cold front is located out across SE NE and north central KS…it’s moving towards KC and should arrive before 9PM. Until the front pushes through…storm chances will hang around…then afterwards cooler and drier air will spread into the region.

There is a lot of rain-cooled air in NE…that thanks to NW winds behind the front and the surface low pressure in SW MN…will move towards the SE tonight and be with us tomorrow. The sun tomorrow will determine how much the air modifies…we may be fighting some clouds for awhile during the morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures at 11AM this morning we’re well below average in many parts of the Plains NW of KC. Those purple areas are temperatures that are 20-30° below average!

rap_t2m_anom_mcentus_1

 

That’s the cooler air that will overspread the region tonight. We’ll see how much we can warm up tomorrow. I sent this tweet out earlier this morning regarding the potential highs for Wednesday (8/19)

Let’s see how things end up tomorrow.

Elsewhere in the weather world…a tropical depression has formed in the far eastern Atlantic over the past couple of days. The next name on the list is Danny should this system strengthen.

 

Various models do various things with this…creating a monster hurricane as it gets closer to the Caribbean to allowing the system to barely hold together. With that said here is the official TPC forecast.

In my opinion…knowing what’s ahead of the system in terms of some dry air and also some wind shear as it gets closer to the Caribbean…I’d be playing this one very conservatively in terms of the forecasted strength.

Meanwhile on the other side of the world…look at this satellite image.

 

Here is a closer image…

courtesy the JMA or Japanese Meteorological Agency

Look in the bottom left side…there are twin typhoons…Atsani is the one on the right…and Goni is the one on the left. The following graphics are from the  JTWC (Atsani)

 

 

 

and Goni:

 

I wanted to bring these up because the typhoon on the right…Atsani could become an interesting weather maker MUCH farther down the road…we’re talking almost 3-4 weeks down the road. For what it’s worth…the GFS (again it’s the GFS model) takes the typhoon and then merges it it appears with other energy in the jetstream to become this monster storm near the Aleutians towards the middle of next week.

Can you see the storm…it’s just off the Aleutians. The map above is valid on the 26th.

The EURO does not do this nearly to this extent.

With that said though…let’s just say that the GFS is right…

Last November something sort of similar happened and I speculated correctly about 10 days from the actual occurrence how we’d have to watch for an outbreak of chiller weather to move into parts of the United States … granted the positioning of the surface storms is different…but IF the map above verifies or is close…we’ll need watch the last couple of days of the month for another shot of chillier weather heading into early September. Just pure speculation on my part…and again the EURO model isn’t nearly as aggressive as the GFS in playing this out into the Aleutians.

It will be interesting to keep track of this over the next 2 weeks.

That’s it for today…

Joe

 

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