Joe’s Weather Blog: Perfect now…but another change (THU-8/20)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Good afternoon…if there has been a better summer day in KC lately…I sure don’t remember it…a crisp morning low of 55° has been followed by bright sunshine with temperatures in the 80s…dew points are nearly perfect for late August in KC. Changes though come over the weekend…you knew it couldn’t last.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and perfect again with lows dropping into the upper 50s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with some additional clouds in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s

Saturday: Isolated showers/storms possible in the AM…then mostly dry till evening and overnight. Highs well into the 80s with higher dew points…so a muggier day. Storms Saturday night may be heavy but should be ending near daybreak Sunday

Sunday: Clearing skies and very nice again with lower dew points and highs near or just above 80°

Discussion:

Getting dew points in the 40s during this time of the year, especially with all the rain we’ve seen over the last few months is pretty darn good, and that’s exactly what we’re experiencing today. This past weekend I promised you that today would be a top 10 weather day of 2015 and also for the summer…what do you think?

The weather will be changing again over the weekend. As the area of high pressure that built down through the upper Midwest yesterday and is now in NE AR…moves away, a more southerly wind flow will gradually take hold. That is happening now…take a look at the 1PM surface may…the temperatures are in red and the dew points are in green…

 

Notice dew points in the 50s all the way down towards the Red River…then the 70s dew points have been pushed towards SE TX.

Gradually the some of the higher dew points will work there way northwards thanks to a persistent south flow of air. You’ll feel that more on Saturday I think. With the moisture return will at least come the chance of storms SAT AM. Odds are not a lot of coverage with that opportunity…

The better chances won’t arrive till Saturday night…there may be about a 6 hour window from 9P-3AM Sunday morning where storms could be rumbling through the region. it’s not out of the question there could be some severe weather associated with that as well. Wind and hail would be the main threat…with wind gusts perhaps the higher threat. The storms will fire to the NW of KC later Saturday afternoon and meander our way overnight. How well they hold together will determine the severity risk…but don’t be surprised overnight Saturday.

Sunday should be another great weather day in the area…and that continues through early next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday may again be closer to 80°…with lows in the morning early next week in the 50s.

Meanwhile in the tropics…a rather small hurricane has formed in the Atlantic. This is the season’s 1st hurricane. Danny was upgraded earlier today. Winds as of this writing are closer to 75 MPH. It’s only a couple of hundred miles across and compared to Typhoon Atsani in the western Pacific…well let’s just say it’s a tiny thing.

With that said…here is the latest satellite loop…the diameter of the eye is about 10 miles across…

Danny potentially can strengthen a bit…but as it gets closer to the Caribbean, it will encounter somewhat stronger upper level winds which will create a shearing effect on the top of the storm. That’s not good for storm intensification and in fact may weaken the storm considerably.

 

Now compare that small hurricane to Atsani in the western Pacific Ocean.

 

Atsani early this afternoon has winds of around 100-110 MPH.

Much cleaner appearance of the eye as well.

We’ll keep an eye on both features…

Somewhat interesting is that the “dip” in the jetstream that is moving through the area over the weekend and eventually gets tot he east coast is forecast to split. One part taking off through New England and eastern Canada with another part dropping southwards or southwestwards into the northern Gulf of Mexico later next week. Then potentially as we head towards early September could come up into the southern Plains or something…both the GFS/EURO have these ideas.

Not buying into it totally…but it would somewhat make sense. With that said and with all the western Pacific storminess potentially playing havoc with the models in the long term in terms of how the models are portraying the atmosphere…certainly not a high confidence builder.

That’s it for today…no blog tomorrow due to station obligations…

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

2 comments

  • Patrick Trudel

    Can’t judge a hurricane purely by its size. Two Cat 5’s to strike the US were quite small in overall size: Andrew in 1992 and the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. Hopefully the Caribbean wind shear courtesy of El Nino will keep Danny from becoming a serious threat.

  • Amae

    Joe,
    Danny is now cat 3. Earlier, I read an Antigua report that mentioned a “small” hurricane that they were caught off guard by last year…..I forget the name ! Anyway it did considerable damage. I sure hope Danny weakens before it gets to Antigua. My son and family are flying from New Jersey to Antigua tomorrow ! They will be there for 8 days. I worry about power outages, flooding. (And their boys are 8 and 10.) they did go through Superstorm Sandy, no power for 8 days…but at least they were home, not stranded !
    Is anything else brewing in the Atlantic that might affect their flight home on Sat, the 29th ?