Good afternoon…my forecast from last weekend for this week has been pretty spot on to this point…I was another chance of rain to arrive today and it will come overnight tonight. I also anticipated today to be the warmest day and that too looks like it will verify…next week’s forecast at this point is also more or less another high confidence forecast for the KC area.
Tonight: Initially dry this evening but I will be tracking storms firing N/W of the KC area that will come our way after 9PM tonight with the higher rain chances from 10PM-4AM tomorrow morning. Storms may be heavy to severe with winds/hail/brief torrential rain being the big issues. Some localized flooding is not out of the question with the line of storms. Temperatures will stay mild this evening before dropping at a good clip during and after the storms to near 60° near daybreak.
Tomorrow: Nearly a perfect 10 weather day with clearing skies early then mostly sunny and delightful. Highs 75-80° with fading NW winds as the day moves along.
Monday: Another brisk morning start with temperatures 50-55° and highs near 80° in the afternoon. Just about perfect once again with light winds.
We’ve enjoyed some spectacular summer weather over the last couple of days and really it’s not too bad today with temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 60s. There is a cold front in the Plains states and that will be the focus of the weather blog today.
The latest weather map shows a couple of interesting features…one being the aforementioned cold front moving through the Plains…and the other being another area of rain cooled air to the south of KC. We’ve seen this happen a few times over the last several months…which when south winds are in place keep temperatures from maxing out even with the summer sunshine in place. We should still get into the mid 80s this afternoon.
The cold front should arrive after 10PM…and perhaps closer to 12AM…so the rain chances are on the increase through that time period. I wanted to show you the experimental upgrade of the HRRR model run today at 10AM…
Since we’re dealing with convection…timing could waffle 1-2 hours or so I think.
On the subject of that…the severe risk is there as mentioned a couple of days ago. Perhaps the better chances reside to the north of the area where the storms will be forming. Since they’ll take a few hours to get to us…the severe weather risk might be slightly lower. With that said something isolated in terms of a 60 MPH+ wind gust wouldn’t shock me closer to home. Rain totals will be varied as is typical but hopefully we’ll get another 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain because after today…we’ll be dry for at least the next 5+ days. According to the SPC…the higher risk for tornadic thunderstorms is farther north into the upper Midwest.
As I mentioned earlier this is going to be a pretty decent for late August cold front in terms of the air mass change from one side to the other. Take a look at the 24 hour temperature changes happening (comparing yesterday at this time to day-map should auto update).
The blue shading in the NW Plains into the northern Rockies is the cooler air flowing in.
This cool/cold (for August) air mass is being drawn southwards because of a rather strong storm in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere which you can clearly see in the water vapor loop spinning across the northern Plains states.
So the seasons are starting their typical transition now up north and over the next few months that progresses southwards as we all know.
Finally a couple of things off my twitter feed that tie baseball and meteorology together…John Smoltz the former great pitcher from the Atlanta Braves came out with an all weather baseball team…
Also, here is something interesting…I’ve remember hearing about Mike Trout (from the Angels) love of weather a couple of years ago…well Jeff Passan formerly of the KC Star wrote about his passion here.
That’s it for today…enjoy the afternoon and better yet…enjoy the near perfect weather coming from Sunday through Tuesday in the KC area.