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Joe’s Weather Blog: Goodbye summer…hello heat (THU-8/27)

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Meteorological summer ends in a couple of days and as meteorological fall begins it appears we’re finally going to see some 90° temperatures return to the KC area…nothing too extreme but hot and humid weather kicks off the month of September…

Forecast:

Tonight: We should be clearing out later this afternoon and overall the evening looks OK. It will be somewhat muggy though with temperatures rather steady in the 60s.

Tomorrow: Another dicey day to make outdoor plans. Rain chances seem higher during the 1st part of the day then again later in the afternoon through the evening hours. Temperatures should make it into the 80s in between rain chances however. Overall sort of a weird weather day.

This weekend: Fighting clouds on Saturday then more sunshine on Sunday. Not too bad from a temperature standpoint with highs in the 80-85° range.

Discussion:

Sort of a weird day in the area with persistent storms in parts of the area. Some haven’t had a drop of rain, others are closing in on over 2″ of rain. There have been locally heavy downpours and lots of vivid lightning with these cells along with some small hail as well.

Meanwhile the rain amounts have been pretty impressive.

 

You can see the rainfall pattern on the doppler estimates above. The storms are moving from the north to the south. The rain was heaviest from southern JOCO through Franklin county and into Anderson Co on the KS side.

The storms have been back-building and affecting many of the same areas in a few rounds.

We’re not out of the rainy woods yet…and for those who want to get their yards a drink of water…we’ll have another 24 hours to try to get more water on the yards…on the flip side of that…after tomorrow, things will be drying out for much of next week. The key tomorrow will be how a dip in the jet stream helps to fuel off additional storms…

 

Images above via Rutgers.

The dip in the jet stream is from the upper Midwest through the western Plains…most of the “best” dip will be passing north of the KC area…that means we’re on the southern edge of things and complicates the timing of the rain for tomorrow.

So with all that said again the key times tomorrow it appears at this point will be before noon then again after about 4PM or so. The better chance may be the 2nd window as opposed to the 1st window. This may complicate the Chiefs situation for tomorrow night.

The 2nd window will be enhanced IF we can warm up even more allowing more instability to build in the region. Highs well into the 80s would intensify the updrafts in the lower part of the atmosphere.

Then the system will pass through overnight Friday and allow a more north wind to take over over the weekend. There isn’t a lot of cool air draining south behind this but we should still be somewhat below average over the weekend in terms of temperatures. Lingering low clouds could muddle the highs on Saturday even more with chances of highs only in the 70s certainly there.

Switching the weather topic into the tropics…

Erika is still hanging on, but is undergoing quite a bit of upper level wind shear. This is not doing the storm any favors in terms of intensifying. Winds are still around 40-45 MPH or so…

The forecast track is VERY much in flux. I’ve noticed some of my colleagues showing maps 7-10 days out with various indications of where the storm will be and intensities for that matter. I feel this is not the right thing to do…heck the models aren’t even correct on this 12 hours out…and yet there are people pushing out what models look like 7-10 days out. Here is the official track from the TPC

 

There are some indications based on the latest satellite pictures that the storm may actually pass farther south and west of where the current plot line is for the next 24-72 hours.

The storm itself could conceivably weaken farther…then try to regain some momentum heading through the weekend. Just another aspect that the models won’t handle well over the next 2-3 days.

Here are the visible satellite pictures and IF you look closely you can see the low level center exposed and separated from the deep convection off towards it’s east.

 

Look for the tight and small spin to the clouds SE of PR.

While the storm isn’t the most powerful, that eastern part of it is producing some torrential rains…and it appears the island of Dominica has been hard hot with over 12″ of rain in under 12 hours.

At least 20 homes have been destroyed and several people killed by the raging waters from flooding.

The Prime Minister of the small island Roosevelt Skerrit (@Skerrit) has been posting information on his twitter account. The airport runway is underwater.

The future of Erika is certainly laden with warm waters over the weekend. Depending on the effects of Erika’s interaction with land areas especially Hispaniola, things could get rather interesting in FL next week. Remember they have not been hit by a hurricane since 2005

So there will be much to track this coming weekend. On another note, and a system that to this point is getting no attention according to my twitter feed at least is this one…

Look to the right hand side…that’s Ignacio…

 

and the forecasted track…it should weaken as it approaches the Big Island…but things could change on the forecasted track side of things…

 

So early next week we could be talking about Erika and Ignacio hitting the US.

Lots happening in the weather world…

Joe

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