Joe’s Weather Blog: Timing rain chances (FRI-9/4)

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Good afternoon…another toasty day out there with temperatures into the 90s and heat index values well into the 90s. No changes are expected through most of Sunday. Monday however could be dicier at times but probably not a rain-out type day.

Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and comfortable after the sun goes down. South breezes at 10 MPH…lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday>Sunday: Mostly sunny, warm and muggy with south winds of 10-20 MPH. Highs 90-95° in the region. Storm chances perhaps by early Monday morning.

Monday (Labor Day): AM chances through noon then variable clouds in the afternoon with highs well into the 80s assuming we have enough sunshine. It will probably be muggy as well.

Discussion:

For those who have had to work during all these warm/hot days in the region…assuming your off tomorrow and Sunday, are in store for some great pool weather with temperatures around 90° give or take a few degrees.

So far so good…

Then there is Monday…

It may not be terrible overall, and at this point it does NOT look like a wash out, with that said though the chances of rain will be increasing early Monday morning (before daybreak..perhaps very late Sunday night). This will be associated with our cold front that I talked about yesterday and will be creeping our way on Monday. Again how far south this gets is somewhat suspect…and in reality the front itself may never push through the region. The weather map on Monday may be a jumbled mess of outflows from the AM storms and the front somewhere to the north of KC.

It seems, at this point, the better rain chances after the morning may be farther north of the KC metro. This will be reliant on the actual front itself still being somewhat stuck north of KC. Then on Tuesday the front may push to the south of KC proper…again more storm chances.

Another front is due on Thursday perhaps…again more storm chances…but confidence in that is low from so far out…cooler weather does look likely with all this, 1st because of an increase in clouds through the area, especially after Monday…then because of actual cool air masses coming into the area, especially heading towards next weekend.

One note…there will be a lot of moisture throughout the atmospheric column on Monday and Tuesday so that means the potential for heavy rains in parts of the area…localized flooding is a possibility…will it be worse in N MO again?

Have a great weekend…another update comes tomorrow afternoon.

Joe

 

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