Joe’s Weather Blog: Running out of summer in KC (WED-9/9)

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The waning days of summer are upon us and things are going to take a very fall-like turn in a few more days…as we’re setting the stage for a stunning fall weekend of weather in the KC area. More on those prospects in the “discussion” part of the blog…in the meantime the good news is that we’ve cleared off this morning and today will actually be a very nice late summer day in the KC area.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs 80-85°

Tonight: Increasing clouds overnight…but pleasant again with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Variable clouds, warm and humid again. Highs into the 80s. Storm chances increase later tomorrow PM into tomorrow evening. There may be a few stronger storms with the “big” front we’ve been expecting. Some locally heavy rain is possible as well later tomorrow and especially tomorrow evening.

Friday: Clearing and crisp with highs around 70°. Note that IF we have more clouds on Friday we may struggle to even get that warm.

Discussion:

Some rather significant temperature changes are on tap for the region heading into the end of the week…so expect highs FRI/SAT to roughly be near 70° with lows on SAT/SUN to potentially be in the 40s, especially on SAT.

So that takes care of the weekend. Temperatures should moderate on Sunday (near 75°) and very nice but warmer weather is likely early next week.

Now about the transition…

Here is the 8AM surface map…the front from yesterday has more or less sort of washed out. Higher dew points have been pushed south of the area for the time being…we have north winds (rather light) in place now. The dryer air is up to the north of the are (closer to the I-80 corridor region where dew points are under 60°). So we’re sort of caught in between for now.

sfc

Overnight tonight and tomorrow the surface winds will be shifting. Now they’re ouot of the north…we should see more of a shift towards the SE/S. Some of the juicier air to the south of the area will slowly come back northwards. So our dew points should come up a bit tomorrow ahead of the stronger front heading this way.

Here is the 1PM surface map…showing the front to the north of the area…we have south winds in place…and the tiny thin green lines are the dew points which are near or above 70°. Click on the image below to make it more readable.

sfc

So the moisture will be in place…a seasonably strong cold front will be cutting into the moisture…it’s a pretty good recipe for storms to develop. We shouldn’t be capped when the front comes through…so that too is helpful in generating storms along the front.

Now the question is instability. Will we have enough sunshine and warmth to allow conditions to become unstable helping to fuel these future storms. That is the only issue right now…because it appears that there could be some extra cloud cover during the day tomorrow…this would tend to reduce the instability in the area for when the front gets here in the evening and overnight. My thoughts at this point are that we should warm up enough…80-85° to allow at least some instability to build in the region…fueling storms to develop to our north and then move through the Metro area tomorrow evening and night.

The SPC is watching our area for the potential of at least some scattered severe storms. The main threats would be some hail and perhaps a wind gust or two to near severe levels. There could be a one step upgrade to this later today or tomorrow.

 

By the way…the next rain chance may not be for another week or so…so it might be a good idea to take a chance on this event and get down some fertilizer for the fall season if you haven’t already. A positive for the storm situation is that there should be at least some divergence aloft. This is when the air higher in the atmosphere is spreading out…this allows air from below to rise contributing to the updrafts in the future storms.

That’s it for today…have a great Wednesday. Next blog update is tomorrow…odds are later in the morning or before 1PM.

I’ll be off this weekend so no blog updates till early next week after tomorrow.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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