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Joe’s Weather Blog: Another nice cold front coming (WED-9/16)

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Good morning and thanks for taking a few minutes and reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. Our weather has been rather nice lately and after a few days off this past weekend, I’ll be filling in for Mike tonight through Friday…so I’ll see you on the air during the newscasts…that also means earlier blogs…so look for updates before lunchtime.

Forecast:

Today: In and out clouds, windy and warm with highs well into the 80s

Tonight: Fair skies, breezy and mild with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Mixed clouds and sun, windy and warm with highs again well into the 80s

Friday: Storm chances increasing…some locally heavy rain is possible from the storms with highs in the 80s.

Discussion:

My timing for having a few days off was good over the past weekend. Some wonderful weather here and down towards the Lake area which is where I spent a couple of days…now that I’m back the winds are blowing and the temperatures are warming.

Today and really most of tomorrow should be on the warm and windy side. Winds will continue to be from the south at 20-30 MPH at times. Dew points are slowly coming up and this will add a bit more of an uncomfortable feel to the air later in the afternoon hours.

The next change in the weather is another cold front that’s going to move through the area slowly on Friday. With the front moving into the higher dew points and instability building, showers and storms are likely in the region again. Once again, as has been the case it seems all season/year, locally heavy rainfall will be possible from the storms as they move through the region.

That’s the big picture, after the front move through the area, cooler and drier air will move into the region Friday night and the weekend is again looking spectacular in the region. with highs in the 70s.

The details though on the front are still to be worked out. Tomorrow night the front will be edging into NW MO…so it’s not out of the question there could be some isolated showers near and even north of the frontal location tomorrow evening. These would favor NW MO and NE KS…

The front will then stall to the NW of KC…and then actually back up as a warm front. This is because there will be a surface storm developing in the Plains into Friday. This will slow the southward progress of the front som much so that the actual front won’t move through the area till sometime later Friday.

Here is the surface weather map as forecasted by the NAM model for tomorrow evening at 7PM showing the front to the NW of KC…

sfc

 

Here is the forecast for the front later on Friday at 7PM. Once the surface storm passes through, the front will move through as well.

 

sfc1

With this set-up and with dew points forecasted to be well into the 60s and the strength of the weather change coming for the weekend…in my opinion the rain chance is close to 100% Friday. Not that it will rain all day on Friday, it shouldn’t, but there should be a decent+ line of storms with the actual front moving through. It’s not out of the question depending on how the instability builds, that there could be some severe weather as well.

At this point the SPC has us in a marginal risk of severe storms on Friday. My feeling is IF we can build a bit more instability during the day on Friday…this will be upgraded a notch to a “sight” risk of severe storms

 

So Friday is somewhat of a more tough forecast. There should be lots of clouds in the area during the morning (maybe even show fading showers), the extent of the cloud breaks and the subsequent warmth (80s are doable) will go a long ways in determining the strength of the storms Friday night.

We’re now half way done with the month of September,,,and so far so warm. We’re more than 4° above average for the month…and while we will cool down this weekend, we should warm up again somewhat next week. The longer range forecast over the next 1-2 weeks is mostly mild as well.

 

Based on the above forecast…odds are this month (relative to normal) will be one of the, if not the, warmest month of the year (again relative to average). The opposite month this year was FEB 2015 with temperature running 8° below average.

That’s it for today…I’ll be doing updates to the forecast this evening.

Joe

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