Heavy rain bearing down on metro, tap here for radar

Joe’s Weather Blog: Settling into a dry pattern (mostly) (WED-9/23)

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Good morning…and welcome to fall. It started after 3AM this morning and now that fall is here thoughts of leaves dropping and cooling temperatures are rambling through my mind. Mother Nature on the other hand has other thoughts, at least from a temperature standpoint. Because while temperatures may drop off a few degrees over the next few days…more or less I’m expecting above average temperatures through the weekend with perhaps a small drop early next week.

Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy warm and muggy for late September with highs near 85°

Tonight: fair skies and mild with lows in the mid-upper 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with highs 80-85°

Discussion:

Welcome to fall! In many ways though today feels exactly like yesterday. Warm and more humid than average for the KC area for this time of the year. Here is the way fall looked from a satellite perspective this morning. Notice the angle the sun’s light is striking the earth’s surface compared to summer!

Really no significant changes to the forecast needed for the next few days. It’s been an interesting overnight for the folks up towards the Omaha area where persistent thunderstorms have been churning through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Here are the latest doppler estimates up there…

 

There were amounts of 6-alomost 10″ of rain near the Omaha area. Omaha itself set a record with over 5″ of rainfall thus far today…and it’s still raining up there.

Closer to KC there are some showers across far northern MO early this morning…

 

Maryville, MO actually had close to 3/4″ of rain yesterday into the overnight hours. N MO just continues to churn out the rain totals, especially in a dry pattern for the vast majority of the area.

On that subject, there really aren’t strong indications of rain coming (of much significance) at least through the weekend. Here is the latest NAM model indicating the rain amounts every 6 hours for the next 3.5 days or so.

 

There may be a cold front come into the region sometime later Tuesday into Wednesday. We should see a bit of a drop off in the temperatures, perhaps closer to average, for a day or so, before we again warm up by the end of the week. Now granted by the end of the month the average highs are closer to 70° than 80° but I continue to expect above average temperatures to mostly persist into the early+ part of October here in the Plains. This will be felt not only in the daily highs, but also the overnight lows as a somewhat persistent southerly air flow keeps temperatures from falling to their average lows by late September which are closer to 50°.

Then as we enter the month of October…temperatures continue to drop off at a pretty good clip (on average). Highs to start the month are typically closer to 70 with lows closer to 50°. By the end of the month the highs are closer to 60° with lows closer to 40°. Click on the image below to make it more readable…heck you might even want to print it out. It’s from the NWS in Pleasant Hill.

Capture

Meanwhile with this warm stretch continuing (more or less) you might be thinking about the potential for a freeze which typically starts developing towards the middle/latter part of October. Here are the dates from the NWS in Pleasant Hill of the last spring freeze and 1st fall freeze (on average: 32° or below). Obviously you can get frosts before those average dates.

Capture

Tomorrow afternoon I’ll be writing about the blood moon and supermoon combination that will happen over the weekend here in the KC area. There is a total lunar eclipse which will be visible in the KC area on Sunday evening!

See you tomorrow and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog.

Joe

 

 

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