Joe’s Weather Blog: Fall cold front arriving (TUE-9/29)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Good morning…temperatures today will be more seasonable overall, however areas on the south side of KC and southwards will still hear the A/C’s click on every so often as temperatures across the region will have a rather large spread. 60s farther north and 80-85° farther south with KC in between. Rain is falling in N MO as well. How much of that gets into the KC area is a question though despite it being so close to the metro this morning.

Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and still mild into lunch or so. Then steady to falling PM temperatures possible from KC northwards. Highs today should still get into the mid 70s before steadying out and/or falling somewhat later this afternoon. IF we have more sunshine this afternoon though it may counteract the cooler air flowing southwards.

Tonight: Fair skies and rather cool with lows in the mid 40s

Tomorrow: In and out clouds and a more seasonable day with highs in the upper 60s.

Discussion:

There is actually a lot of potential weather happening in the USA. The eastern seaboard, especially from the Virgina’s northwards are monitoring the tropics and the progress of newly formed Joaquin. Regardless of the path of that storm, there is a copious amount of moisture that is poised to move into the NE part of the country over the weekend with an upper air pattern that is VERY amplified, allowing this moisture to surge into the NE. This means a significant rain event with flooding potential may be setting up.

Many parts of the NE are in drought conditions this week, so they need the rain…perhaps though not all at once. More on this system on Thursday and Friday.

Back home a cold front will be moving through the region today. We should still warm up this morning though thanks to enough sunshine. Farther north it’s raining (as usual) in northern MO this morning.

 

The rain though is going to have a tough time holding together as it moves closer to KC. Some showers are not out of the question closer to the I-70 corridor later this morning and towards this afternoon.

The front itself isn’t the strongest early fall front. Basically it’s just going to put our temperatures over the next few days closer to average, if not slightly below average. The air is considerably colder across the northern Plains this morning. Notice the temperatures, which are in RED in the following map (8AM surface map). Frost/freeze warnings were in effect for the upper Midwest today.

 

The visible satellite, which should update automatically today shows extensive cloud cover this morning north of KC. These clouds should expand southwards as the front spreads out ahead into the area and interacts with a little surface moisture in place.

 

How much cloud cover we have this afternoon will determine whether or not we see falling temperatures or something more steady. The winds will play a role in that as well. A steadier and strong NNE wind will help to cool things off a bit quicker today while lighter breezes with more sunshine will keep temperatures from falling a lot.

Something to note, that rain up there is also helping to cool things down so with the winds blowing that rain cooled air southwards, that may help the potential temperature trend a bit as well.

This “cool” weather is going to last through the weekend.

You may have started to notice that things are drying out in some areas. This is not really that uncommon during this time of the year. With that said we can use some steady rainfall closer to home, although I’m sure with this being harvest time, many farmers would just assume want dry weather for awhile longer.

Here is a look at the September anomalies on the MO side…and on the KS side. Click both images to make them larger and more readable.

Capture

Capture

It’s nothing overly serious at this point…also considering how wet it’s been in 2015 overall it’s not that bad. It’s not exactly great news though for the fall foliage. Something to monitor though because it doesn’t look like we’re setting up for a lot of rain in E KS and W MO for some time.

Meanwhile at KCI, aside from the big and record setting rain a few weeks ago, it’s been a pretty dry month overall with just 2 events of noteworthiness.

Capture

All the graphics above are via IA State.

Here is the forecast for the next 7 days in terms of total rainfall. This is heavily model biased but you get the point of where the better rains will be. The NE part of the country and also west of the KC area.

The weather pattern overall is rather strange and will be for a bit of time. Things next week do look to be a bit milder.

That’s it for today…have a great Tuesday and the next update will come on Thursday.

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s