Joe’s Weather Blog: We actually need some rain soon (THU-10/8)

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Good morning…skies across most of the area are cloudy as I write this and it wouldn’t shock me to see an isolated shower crop up this morning but the coverage will be sparse and for those wanting some good soaking rain…things don’t look too good in the region for quite some time. We’re going to end up in NW flow aloft next week, and while that promises some day to day changes to the temperatures, it’s also a typically dry flow in the fall season and I think that will carry through for quite some time…like I said we could use some rain.

Forecast:

Today: Clouds this morning giving way to some sunshine in the afternoon with highs 80-85°. An initial wind shift line will be moving through the area near or before game time. The real “front” won’t move through till late tonight. The chances for storms along that initial line are there but odds are favoring the storms to form south of KC proper.

Tonight: The front itself comes through and there may be at least a bit more coverage of the rain with it. With that said I’m not overly optimistic about getting too much in terms of actual totals. Rain chance imo during the game itself is about 20% increasing to 40% towards 12AM or so then dropping towards daybreak. Lows tonight back into the 50s. As an FYI…I plan on bringing some rain gear to the game just to be on the safe side. Also be alert for falling temperatures through the evening hours, especially after 8PM or so. We may start near 80 but we’ll drop to the 60s with an increasing wind later in the game I think.

Tomorrow: Clearing out and pleasant with highs well into the 60s. Should be spectacular fall weather for the game in the afternoon tomorrow (ALDS #2)

This weekend: Wonderful! Pleasant on Saturday with highs in the 70s and milder on Sunday with highs into the 80s.

Discussion:

As I mentioned at the top of the blog…it’s getting dry out there. This isn’t unusual for us during September and October. We can go through some pretty dry stretches. We’ve had .01″ of rain since mid September and on the assumption we don’t get all that much tonight…it’s very possible we’re waiting another 7+ days for additional rain chances. Here is a look at the GFS forecast going out for 10 days from the overnight model run…again NOT encouraging.

gfs_tprecip_mc_41

that is total rainfall expected in the region…basically it’s forecasting less than 1/10″ or so of moisture and that comes with the system tonight.

We average about .75″ of rainfall a week during mid October…not a ton in the big picture of things but enough. That is going to be tough to achieve over the next couple of weeks.

In the bigger picture, across the USA, it’s more likely the deserts of AZ get more rain that we get here in the Plains area over the next 10 days.

gfs_tprecip_conus2_41

As the month moves along…temperature contrasts will seasonably strengthen from the hotter are tot he south and the colder air developing in Canada and northwards. These temperature contrasts at the surface and aloft strengthen the jet stream. This happens ALL the time during October and continues into the early winter. When the jet stream strengthens various waves move faster through the flow. While the modelling has a tough time handling the actual speed of these waves, the “overall” ideas of the flow aloft are more reliable to an extent.

Why that is important is that the speed of the individual waves moving through the jetstream help to dictate our temperatures on a daily basis and whether or not various cold fronts move through one day or perhaps the next. This influences our high temperature forecasts especially. When forecasting 5 days+ out…one day may look warm as we think we’re going to be in a bubble of warmer air ahead of a cold front…then the next day the front has sped up and instead of being in a bubble of warmth now cooler air is flowing into the region when looking at that same forecast several days out. This is why you see a forecast of a 6-7 day forecast change from the 80s to the ??’s overnight or the next day.

How can we as meteorologists counter these changes? Well I can’t speak for others but sometimes it’s as easy as not forecasting overly warm/cold temperatures based on any one model run. Sometimes that far out, it’s easier to forecast highs near average instead of going to an extreme either direction and then having to adjust by 10-20° the next day one way or the other. Does that make sense?

So with all that said, here is a forecast of the anomalies expected off the GFS ensemble computer run. Ensembles are also beneficial during these transition times as well because they tend to smooth out the “bumps” of the ups and downs, especially in the longer term.

KMCI_2015100806_nxa_384

Basically the model is forecasting overall above average temperatures to near average temperatures through the 20th or so.

With fronts rapidly moving through the Plains, of various strengths, the surface moisture is going to get swept away and pushed well south if the area. This moisture then doesn’t have enough time come back into the region before the next front comes thorough a couple of days later.

Again this is NOT unusual for this time of the year. with that said you can also get into some rather wet Octobers as well. Last October was one of the wettest Octobers in KC weather history with over 9″ of rainfall as the FOX 4 weather almaac shows. Click onthe graphic below to make it more readable.

Capture

There are 7 Octobers in the last 35 years that have had less than 1.25″ of moisture during the month. On average about 1 out of every 5 Octobers. Obviously all this can change towards the end of the month. Longer range forecasts show a rather strong western ridge hanging tough. This would indicate a continued dry NW flow into our area down the road.

Great if you want to do things outdoors…as the 8-14 day forecast shows with temperature trends…

 

So overall it appears dry and mid>warm into the 3rd week of the month. Have a great weekend and I’ll check back in down the road. Go Royals!

Joe

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