Joe’s Weather Blog: Dry spell rages on (WED-10/14)

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Good afternoon…another Chamber Of Commerce type day this afternoon and it seems as if we’ve had a lot of those over the past month or so. Of course the price we’re paying for all the nice weather is the dry conditions that are continuing in the region. There is no doubt I’ve been using the sprinklers more in the last 10 days that I did all summer combined…for those who have planted seed and have put down sod, this is not a good time…we need some nice rain and unfortunately I don’t see much, aside from some sprinkles, really into Tuesday.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and pleasant. 50s later this evening after the game, and eventually down into the upper 40s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and mild again despite a cold front coming through by lunch. Temperatures will warm into the 70s again though even with the frontal passage with north winds picking up somewhat in the afternoon.

Friday: Mostly sunny but certainly cooler with highs around 65°

Discussion:

I’ve had about a week off and typically if I’m staying in town (which I did) I’d cobble at least a blog or two together, but in all honesty we have really had no weather to talk about for the last 10+ days or so and there just was not anything to talk about.

We will continue to see a series of fronts move through the region over the next 10 days. They will have various punches of cold air with them. There doesn’t appear to be any real big pushes coming but the front moving through tomorrow will deliver chillier weather for sure Friday into Saturday. Saturday the issue may be cloud cover and a cool air mass keeping temperatures below average but then we should warm up on Sunday.

A somewhat stronger push of chilly air is expected to move in by Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Of course all these changes are interesting to talk about but despite the fronts moving through, we’ve been rather dry. So far this month we’ve had a whooping .06″ of rainfall @ KCI. IF the month ended today, it would be our driest October in KC weather history…obviously though we still have more than half the month to go…it’s a notable dry spell for sure, in an overall wet year in the KC area.

What was interesting in last week’s drought report was an area of moderate drought conditions that developed in central MO…this may expand a bit this week.

Capture

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On the KS side…there continues to be a small area of moderate drought conditions towards western KS.

Do you remember that big rain that fell on 9/10…over 4″ @ KCI…well since the 11th, through today we’ve been rather dry for sure…

Capture

What’s interesting to us stat heads is that last year was the total opposite…wet and very wet. The 11th wettest as a matter of fact.

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So what may help out the dry conditions? There is a storm out in the Pacific Ocean right now…

 

A piece of that storm will break off and move into the western part of the country, and eventually the Plains towards the middle of the week. It may not be that organized however, and that means a potentially slow surface moisture return on Tuesday into Tuesday night or the storm will not get much influx of moisture from the south…and will just have to crank out rain with the moisture it brings with it from the western part of the country.

At this point it doesn’t look overly impressive…and hopefully that is something that can change because we really need some rain around these parts.

The colors are changing, that’s for sure. Today I wanted to show you the change from a satellite perspective looking from above to the terrain below. 1st take a look at a satellite picture from the middle of August (8/20)

Capture1

Notice the green terrain all over the place including abnormally green conditions in the central plains because of all the rainfall in the spring and early summer months.

Now look at the image taken yesterday.

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Things are really “browning” up out there…pretty interesting contrast.

One last thing about the chilly shot of air for the end of the week. Saturday morning has the potential of seeing pretty cool temperatures, however there is an increasing chance of a rather substantial deck of mid level clouds moving through the area early Saturday into Saturday afternoon. This would not allow temperatures to crater as much as the potential would dictate. We are now entering the time of the year where we should get our 1st frost. IF we miss out on SAT AM…there may be another opportunity on THU AM next week. IF we miss out on that…then we may be waiting till at least the end of OCT.

That’s it for today. GO ROYALS!

Joe

 

 

 

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