Joe’s Weather Blog: Frosty mornings + another storm (FRI-11/6)

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During the month of November we can get some rather wild and wooly weather in the area. Typically we can see some rather large temperature swings from high to low typically. Last year you may remember a big drop in our temperatures that hit on 11/10-11 and lasted about 10 days. We went from near 70° to below freezing on the 10th and then stayed below 35° for 7 STRAIGHT DAYS! We had a high of 23° one of those days…I bring this up because, while we don’t see anything like that happening next week, we should see another significant warm-up then cool down later in the week.

Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and cool with lows down into the 30s

Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonable with highs 55-60°. Some AM frost is possible

Sunday: Pleasant and seasonable with highs near 60°. We should have some decent morning frost out there.

Discussion:

Through the 1st 5 days of November we have had our 14th warmest start to the month in KC weather history going back into the 1880s. Like I mentioned though at the top of the blog, November is known for big storms and bigger temperature swings…and I’ll be tracking a soon-to-be vigorous storm system for next week.

1st things first though…aside from some frost out there the next couple of days look to be rather pleasant in the area. The breeze will pick up a bit on Sunday however so it may “feel” cooler in the afternoon compared to tomorrow (with lighter winds)

On the subject of frost/freeze etc…not all have had one yet. KCI has dropped to 32° on 10/29…but downtown KC has only dropped to 36°. Many have experienced a light frost though.

We should see a few more areas near or below 32° over the weekend, especially Sunday morning as the winds drop off.

As I mentioned at the top of the blog, a rather vigorous storm system is going to move through the Plains next Wednesday…this will bring some rather substantial changes to the air masses in the region. Ahead of the storm, we’ll warm-up nicely again, while behind the storm a quick shot of some chilly air will move into the area. At this point it appears the storm will not really tap into any Canadian air of significance ut it should be able to generate some cold air on it’s own, perhaps supporting some snow across parts of the Plains into the western Great Lakes area.

The future storm is now a rather strong wave off the coast of AK and NW Canada. Here is satellite loop from Rutgers University…showing the system in question.

 

This system will drop into the western part of the USA on Sunday then move through the western US on Monday. Then move into the western Rockies Tuesday and into the Plains on Wednesday before heading towards the central Lakes region on Thursday. The upper level storm will help to create a surface storm system on TUE/WED that will move near the KC area on WED and be near the Lakes area by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the storm, strong south winds will start warming things up MON-WED…and also bring in surface moisture. We may again be looking at another low cloud deck creating temperature issues on WED before that moisture is swept away by a November cold front later WED into early THU.

This cold front should create more rain and potentially some severe weather in the eastern Plains states including the potential of larger hail and also tornadoes. That DOES NOT mean KC will be in that region…although should the storm slow 6-12 hours or so, it would certainly be on my radar for next WED (this is certainly possible considering we’re 5+ days away from the event).

The dynamics of the storm should be impressive and depending on how the timing plays out…a range of severe weather modes would be possible from the Plains eastwards later WED into THU. Some backside snow is possible, with chances highest in parts of the upper Midwest towards WI and MI.

Obviously all this can and will change especially with regards to the severe weather potential/location (perhaps a lot) between the weekend and next Wednesday but at the very least I want you to be aware of this storm system well ahead of the game. Severe weather is not that unusual in November, especially along these stronger cold fronts bringing big swings in the temperatures through the Plains and eastern part of the country.

Taken at face value the data today (EURO model) supports a pretty nasty outbreak of thunderstorms towards the east of KC near and east of central MO on WED. The GFS model would suggest some wet snowflakes in parts of central KS into maybe SE NE…while the Canadian model suggests some snow from western KS into eastern NE. So there is a lot on the plate regarding the middle of next week.

That’s about it for today…I’ll get at least one blog update done over the weekend for you…not sure which day though.

Enjoy a delightful fall weekend and I’ll see you on TV over the weekend too!

Joe

 

 

 

 

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